Cool Day – Possible Showers Overnight

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Beautiful but cool day across Central Alabama yesterday and it looks like another one for us. Getting off to a nippy start this morning with lows in the middle 20s, some spots even into the lower 20s. With a mostly sunny morning we should see temperatures climb toward highs in the lower 50s. But clouds will increase today as a weak disturbance moves through the upper flow and we see some moisture return from the southeast. This means a threat for some showers generally southeast of the Interstate 59 corridor. I believe the main threat comes from this evening into the first of Monday morning with most of the showers out of the area by late morning. This should allow us a dry afternoon with clouds abating and highs climbing into the lower and middle 50s. Watch the video for a look at the RPM model which seems to have this situation pegged better than the GFS.

The ridge pumps up for us into mid-week as we see a nice warm up. I expect to see the highs reach into the 60s Tuesday, Wednesday, and Thursday. By Thursday a trough kicks out of the Southwest US and drags a frontal zone close to Alabama from the northwest. This means that showers become a possibility on Thursday and Friday and into the weekend. The question will be where the frontal zone stalls as to where the best rain chances will be. However, it also means with a frontal zone in and close to the area, there will be some risk for showers. With an upper flow from the southwest, we should remain fairly mild with highs sticking in the lower and mid 60s.

Rainfall this evening and early Monday should be fairly light and spotty with less than a tenth of an inch for places that do get rain. Later in the week the rain is likely to be light, too, until that frontal boundary finally pushes through the area. The GFS suggests that will come on Monday as the trough in the Southwest US finally kicks out across the eastern US with a wet start for next week.

Looking further afield, the GFS is not suggesting any extreme weather until we get to December 27th when it shows a strong trough over the center of the country with some colder air poised to invade the eastern half of the country.

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I had a great time in the role of Santa Claus at Helena United Methodist Church yesterday morning. The church hosted about 75 foster kids with activities and a visit with the jolly man. As you might guess, we had everything from tears to smiles. James Spann should be back with the next edition of the Weather Xtreme Video first thing on Monday morning. Godspeed.

-Brian-

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Category: Alabama's Weather