One More Warm December Day
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RAIN GETTING CLOSER: Clouds will thicken across Alabama today ahead of a storm system that will pass north of the state. The weather stays warm, with a high in the low 70s for most communities; the closest rain to us early this morning is over West Tennessee and the Mississippi Delta.
We note our forecast high today of 72 is 16 degrees above the average high of 56, and 5 degrees shy of the record high of 77 set in 1971 (same record as yesterday).
While a shower might break out in spots this afternoon, especially over Northwest Alabama, the main risk of showers will come tonight and tomorrow. As discussed here throughout the week, rain should be pretty light. The 00Z NAM is now printing only 0.08″ for Birmingham, while the GFS is is only slightly wetter at 0.17″. Sure seems now like most places will see only a quarter inch of rain or less. The rain ends tomorrow night as drier air begins to slip into the state.
COOLER WEEKEND: Highs drop back into the mid to upper 50s Saturday and Sunday despite a mostly sunny sky, and we will be very close to freezing both Sunday and Monday morning. These temperatures are near or slightly below average for mid December in Alabama.
NEXT WEEK AND BEYOND: The next chance of rain for Alabama will come Tuesday into Wednesday of next week. The GFS suggests the rain will be on Tuesday, but the ECMWF has a much better track record in the medium range, and holds off the rain until Tuesday night and Wednesday. There might be some thunder with this system, but no severe weather is expected.
Christmas weekend remains in “voodoo land”, so there is no specific skill in a forecast this far in advance; the 06Z GFS hints at a dry Christmas Eve followed by some rain Christmas Day, but there is no way to resolve that for now. Still no sign of any extremely cold air or winter weather issues. The pattern just doesn’t favor it. See the Weather Xtreme video for a day by day walk through.
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I have a weather program this morning at Cherokee Bend Elementary School in Mountain Brook… then later today I will be live at Legacy BBQ on Highway 150 in Hoover, near the Galleria and right across from Applebees. This will be the kickoff of our annual 26 hour Toys for Tots grand finale; we still need about 25,000 toys to reach our goal this year, and the deadline is tomorrow evening. The needs are overwhelming in our state, so please take a few minutes today or tomorrow and buy a new, unwrapped toy and bring it by any of the collation spots. We all thank you in advance!
The next Weather Xtreme video will be posted by 3:30 or so this afternoon… enjoy the day!
Category: Alabama's Weather
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James Spann is one of the most recognized and trusted television meteorologists in the industry. He holds the AMS CCM designation and television seals from the AMS and NWA. He is a past winner of the Broadcast Meteorologist of the Year from both professional organizations.Subscribe
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