Wet, Unsettled Weather Ahead
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SUN GOING AWAY FOR A WHILE: A complex pattern will being periods of rain and thunderstorms to Alabama through Thursday as energy comes out of the Southwest U.S. in bits and pieces.
Look for a cloudy and mild day today with developing showers. Temperatures will rise into the mid to upper 60s today, about ten degrees above average for late December. We will forecast a good chance of showers and thunderstorms tonight and tomorrow with better dynamics coming into play. The good news is that SPC has dropped the “slight risk” of severe weather as the 00Z model runs have come in with less instability and shear. Surface based CAPE values are expected to remain under 500 j/kg, but we will still need to watch the radar for strong storms overnight as these cool weather systems can often pack more of a punch that you expect with the low instability values.
The rain will diminish by tomorrow afternoon, with a brief break for Wednesday night.
THURSDAY/FRIDAY: Another round of rain and storms is likely Thursday with the next impulse, and SPC has introduced a “slight risk” of severe weather basically for the area just south of Birmingham down to near Mobile. Guidance is showing CAPE values (surface based) near 500 j/kg, with some EHI enhancement over Southwest Alabama. We need to get tomorrow’s system out of here before we can be really specific… certainly not a major event, but one we will need to watch. Friday will stay cloudy with a chance of lingering showers, mainly during the morning hours. See the Weather Xtreme video for details on the convective potential.
CHRISTMAS WEEKEND: Still lots of uncertainty with poor model consistency and agreement. But, we will ride with the 00Z ECMWF and bring in a chance of rain Saturday afternoon and Saturday night, followed by a cool and dry day Sunday with highs in the 50s after a morning low in the 30s. We do note the GFS is drier, with very little rain showing up Saturday night. See the Weather Xtreme video for details.
VOODOO LAND: The 06Z GFS shows a nice rain/storm event around December 30… followed by drier air by 12/31 and 1/1/12. Still no sign of any seriously cold air through the first few days of the New Year… see the Weather Xtreme video for details.
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Category: Alabama's Weather
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James Spann is one of the most recognized and trusted television meteorologists in the industry. He holds the AMS CCM designation and television seals from the AMS and NWA. He is a past winner of the Broadcast Meteorologist of the Year from both professional organizations.Subscribe
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