Alabama 811 | Know What's Below.

The Word Is Wet

| December 20, 2011 @ 3:30 pm

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DREARY, WET DAYS: It could very well be early next week before we see a decent amount of sunshine around here as a wet, unsettled pattern sets up. The rain will basically come in three waves…

WAVE ONE: Look for rain and a few thunderstorms tonight and tomorrow; SPC dropped the “slight risk” of severe weather early this morning… it looks like instability values will be too low for major severe weather problems, but there is still a decent amount of low level helicity, so we will have to watch radar trends overnight for possible surprises. These low CAPE high shear cool season events can be tricky. Rain amounts of 1/2 to 3/4″ are likely over the next 24 hours… the rain should taper off by midday tomorrow.

WAVE TWO: The next round of showers and storms will come Thursday and Thursday night. SPC has a slight risk up for the southern part of Alabama, in the broad area from south of Birmingham to Mobile. Pretty much the same situation as tomorrow; not a really classic severe weather setup, but another low CAPE high shear type event. The best chance of severe weather seems to be over the southern half of the state with the best instability. Rain amounts of around one inch are likely before the rain tapers off late Thursday night.

We might see a decent break in the rain Friday with only a few lingering showers, but clouds most likely will hang tough with the persistent southwest flow aloft. And, then comes…

WAVE THREE: More rain for the Christmas weekend. The GFS is dry, but that solution is rejected. We will roll with the ECMWF and GEMS, and forecast a good chance of rain Saturday afternoon, Saturday night, and into Sunday morning. The air will be stable with highs in the 50s and no severe weather is expected. Another 1/2 to 3/4″ of rain is likely over the weekend. Wonder if anybody is dreaming of a Wet Christmas?

Finally, some evidence we will see a good supply of sunshine Monday of next week before rain returns quickly by Tuesday. See the Weather Xtreme video for a detailed day by day breakdown of weather over the next 7 to 15 days.

INTO THE NEW YEAR: The NAO stays positive, and no sign of any seriously cold air invading the Deep South into the first 5 days of 2012.

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Category: Alabama's Weather

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James Spann is one of the most recognized and trusted television meteorologists in the industry. He holds the AMS CCM designation and television seals from the AMS and NWA. He is a past winner of the Broadcast Meteorologist of the Year from both professional organizations.

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