Wet Days Ahead; Strong Storms Tomorrow
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AIN’T NO SUNSHINE: Remember the song by Brother Bill Withers?
“Ain’t no sunshine when she’s gone
It’s not warm when she’s away
Ain’t no sunshine when she’s gone
And she always gone too long anytime she goes away
Wonder this time where she’s gone
Wonder if she’s gone to stay
Ain’t no sunshine when she’s gone
And this house just ain’t no home
Anytime she goes away”
TODAY/TONIGHT: A band of showers and possibly a thunderstorm will continue to move through Alabama this morning. Nothing severe, and rain not all that heavy. There will be a relative lull in the rain later today and tonight, but the clouds won’t be going anywhere with the southwest flow aloft continuing. The weather stays mild with a high in the upper 60s this afternoon, over ten degrees above average for late December in Alabama.
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT TOMORROW: SPC maintains their standard “slight risk” of severe weather for parts of North and West Alabama as the next wave approaches the state. The NAM brings the surface based CAPE to near 500 j/kg, but the RPM is more aggressive with values nearing 1,000 j/kg by mid-afternoon. Surface temperatures will rise to near 70, with dew points near 60. And, low level helicity values are over 200 m2/s2, along with decent lapse rates.
The STP, significant tornado parameter, rises to about 2.5 during the afternoon. Keep in mind this was maxed out at 10 on April 27, but a 2.5 is fairly significant. The STP is calculated with parameters that includes 0-6 km bulk wind difference, 0-1 km storm-relative helicity, surface parcel CAPE, surface parcel CIN, and surface parcel LCL height.
See the Weather Xtreme video for the graphics and details.
The bottom line is that is looks like we will need to mention a chance of severe weather tomorrow, with the primary risk coming from about 12:00 noon until 8:00 p.m., which of course is during the peak of the daytime heating process. And, the main severe weather threat will be over the western half of the state, west of I-65.
NOT UNUSUAL: No, severe weather threats are not unusual in Alabama in December. This is the tail end of our fall tornado season. If you are looking for consistent cold and snow at Christmas, you live way too far south! Our White Christmas last year was quite a rare gift.
FRIDAY: This looks like a fairly quiet day, with only a small risk of a stray shower or two. But, any sunshine should be very limited with the southwest flow aloft continuing. The day will be a little cooler with a high near 60.
CHRISTMAS WEEKEND: More rain. The final in the series of short waves will bring rain back to Alabama; looks like the bulk of the rain will come from late Saturday afternoon through Christmas morning. The air will be cool and stable, with highs in the 50s both days, so there will be no severe weather threat. The rain will be out of here by Sunday evening.
NEXT WEEK AND BEYOND: The 06Z GFS hints at three dry, mostly sunny days in a row early next week, but other runs have tried to bring in some rain by Tuesday. One way or another, it looks like at least Monday will be sunny and pleasant with a high in the 57-60 degree range.
Still no sign of the NAO (North Atlantic Oscillation) going negative, meaning no seriously cold air through the first week of 2012. See the Weather Xtreme video for details.
WEATHER BRAINS: Don’t forget you can listen to our weekly 90 minute netcast anytime on the web, or on iTunes. This is the show all about weather featuring many familiar voices, including our meteorologists here at ABC 33/40. We will record a mid-week special tonight at 8:30 p.m. CST… this is the show that will air on iTunes and the web the week after Christmas. We are recorded early due to vacation schedules next week.
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Look for the next Weather Xtreme video here by 3:30 or so this afternoon… enjoy the day…
Category: Alabama's Weather
About the Author (Author Profile)
James Spann is one of the most recognized and trusted television meteorologists in the industry. He holds the AMS CCM designation and television seals from the AMS and NWA. He is a past winner of the Broadcast Meteorologist of the Year from both professional organizations.Subscribe
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