Quick Shot Of Cold Air For Alabama

| January 18, 2012 @ 6:02 am

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COLD AND DRY: In the wake of the cold front that passed through Alabama last night, temperatures are down in the low 30s in most places this morning with a fair sky. The day will be chilly, but mostly sunny with a high somewhere between 45 and 49 degrees.

Just be thankful we are not in Montana or North Dakota… there is an “extreme cold warning” in effect there. Some early morning temperatures include 24 below zero at Cut Bank, Montana, and 8 below zero at Williston, North Dakota. No thanks.

Tonight will bring a freeze to much of Alabama; most communities should be in the mid to upper 20s early tomorrow.

WARMING UP AGAIN: Tomorrow will be mostly sunny with a warming trend getting underway. We rise to near 60 degrees by afternoon. The warm-up continues Friday with a high in the mid 60s. Clouds will return Friday, and a few showers could break out by Friday afternoon or Friday night in the moist air.

WEEKEND FORECAST: Saturday will be a mild and wet day to kick off the weekend with occasional showers and possibly a thunderstorm. Rain amounts of 1/2 to 1 inch look likely; for now the severe weather potential looks low with marginal instability and lapse rates, but as always we have to watch these cold season systems closely as they move through.

At this point Sunday looks generally dry with a mix of sun and clouds; we stay very mild with the GFS printing a high of 69 Sunday afternoon. A cold front will move into Alabama Sunday night, however, with a chance of showers.

NEXT WEEK: I warned all of the storm chaser guys so pumped over the severe weather look given by the GFS on Tuesday that it probably wouldn’t hold since the ECMWF was not on board. And, sure enough, the 00Z GFS has totally backed off and is now in good agreement with the ECMWF, giving higher confidence in the forecast for next week.

Showers should end early Monday with the sky becoming partly sunny by afternoon. We will be a bit cooler with a high around 60 Monday afternoon. Then, Tuesday (the day the GFS suggested we could have a big severe weather event for several days) will be dry and pleasant with a high in the low 60s.

A major storm system to the west will bring the next round of showers and storms late Wednesday night into Thursday. This will be a dynamic system and will need to be monitored for severe weather potential, but it does not show the classic negative tilt look portrayed by the GFS for days. The Euro again seems to be on the right track. It is just too early to be specific; see the Weather Xtreme video for all of the graphics and details.

PATTERN CHANGE? The GFS ensembles, and the 06Z operational run hint that the North Atlantic Oscillation, which has been positive all season, might make a run at negative territory as February begins. This could open the door for longer and more significant cold snaps. And, considering the brutal cold that has been over Alaska and western Canada for the season, we will need to watch this. Again, take a look at the video for the details.

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I will be doing a program today for the kids at the Oak Mountain Presbyterian pre-school… look for the next Weather Xtreme video here by 3:30 or so this afternoon. Enjoy the day!

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Category: Alabama's Weather

About the Author ()

James Spann is one of the most recognized and trusted television meteorologists in the industry. He holds the AMS CCM designation and television seals from the AMS and NWA. He is a past winner of the Broadcast Meteorologist of the Year from both professional organizations.

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