Another Round of Wet Weather

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Another round of wet and stormy weather on tap for Alabama, however, this time it appears the greatest severe weather threat remains to our south. The problem we are dealing with this morning is just how far north severe storms could occur. And while I believe that the greatest severe weather threat remains to our south, Central Alabama remains on the edge with parameters that are marginally conducive to severe storm generation, so it will definitely be a “stay tuned” situation. And that means staying up with posts here on the Blog as we carefully watch the unfolding weather scene.

At the moment, SPC has a tornado watch in effect for Southwest Alabama, Southeast Mississippi, and Southeast Louisiana. Radar clearly shows numerous thunderstorms with some significant lightning. There were no warnings in effect when I was writing this around 6:30 am. The instability is marginal into Central Alabama with sufficient values, while instability remains the highest along the Gulf Coast. Once again, shear values are good, too, though not as high as we’ve seen recently. So the bottom line is that my belief is that the strongest storms will stay south of Central Alabama, generally south of about Montgomery. But simply because of uncertainty in how far north the instability can surge, it is best to stay up with the latest weather information.

Rainfall may be heavy at times and the Tennessee Valley counties are under a flash flood watch for today. It appears that a solid one inch of rain is likely over most of Central Alabama with some spots potentially getting 2 inches in some of the isolated heavier storms.

The upper low coming out of East Texas today will reach the Mid-Atlantic coast Friday as we see a return to sunshine. But the upper flow evolves toward a somewhat colder pattern with a couple of strong impulses traveling through the Great Lakes. These will help to sharpen the trough over the eastern half of the country and bring a short spell of colder weather to the area. Looks like a great weekend with lots of sun but colder temperatures with lows just below freezing on Sunday and Monday mornings. Highs are still reasonable in the mid and upper 50s.

But the chill does not last long as the pattern goes zonal once again by Monday. An upper level short wave coming out of the Central Rockies on Tuesday will drag a front into Central Alabama on Wednesday. While moisture is limited, it seems prudent to introduce a chance for isolated showers at mid-week. But temperatures remain mild for this time of year.

Looking further out, the GFS suggests a much colder pattern with a fairly deep trough over the eastern half of the country on from the 3rd to the 6th. But by the 10th, the mild, zonal flow pattern of the upper flow has returned.

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Thanks for staying tuned to the Weather Xtreme Video. I will be filling in for James tonight on ABC 3340 as he galavants across the state on various speaking engagements. I believe he will have the next Xtreme early Friday morning before I come back over the weekend. Godspeed.

-Brian-

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Category: Alabama's Weather