Dry and Cool for a Few Days

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It’s going to be nice to have several dry days along with some chillier air. But in true Southeast US fashion, the colder air won’t be sticking around very long as milder weather sets in for the first of next week.

The upper trough moves off the East Coast late Sunday and into Monday as the upper air pattern flattens. This means a chilly morning Sunday morning and again Monday morning, but then the warm up comes about and we recover nicely with highs Monday reaching the 60 to 62 range.

Dry weather continues Tuesday, but that changes on Wednesday as a fast moving short wave along with a surface low moves across the northern tier of the US and drags a front down into the Southeast US. This could produce some showers across the area with probably the better chance coming into early Thursday. With the front in the area and the southwesterly flow aloft, we stay in a moist pattern as a significant trough digs into the Central US. The GFS forecasting this trough to dig into Mississippi and close off an upper low over Mississippi on Saturday. This is where the trouble begins.

The upper low is forecast to be fairly strong and a cold core system, so as you’ve heard here many times, cold core low, weatherman’s woe. The air aloft will be quite cold, so some form of wintery precipitation could occur. But with the mild weather we’ve had together with the warm ground temperatures, the layer next to the ground is likely to stay pretty warm. So whether or not we see any wintery precipitation or a mix is going to depend on just how cold the whole layer is. And this is also at the edge of voodoo country, so we’ll need to keep an eye on how the computer models handle this system with time. The present model solution does not suggest a major issue.

The rain on Wednesday and into Thursday could be on the order of about half an inch.

The overall look further out suggests a somewhat colder pattern with a substantial trough over the eastern half of the country. The fetch is very impressive coming from the Arctic Circle, however, the really cold air seems to stay just to our north making it only into the Ohio River Valley. But this may result in a fairly widespread snow event from Chicago to Boston.

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Godspeed.

-Brian-

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Category: Alabama's Weather