A Calm Weather Pattern
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DRY AIR IN PLACE: It is a fair and cool morning across the northern half of Alabama, with temperatures mostly in the 40s. We do note a few sprinkles on radar over Southwest Alabama, but the air is very dry over the northern counties and we don’t expect any rain up this way. Today will feature a partly sunny sky, with a high somewhere between 57 and 60 degrees.
DRY WEEK: Despite a few weak short waves passing just north of here, it looks like the air over our state will be simply too dry to support any really significant chance of rain through Friday. We expect a high in the low 60s tomorrow and Wednesday, but then we turn a bit cooler air Thursday and Friday with highs dropping back into the 50s following a frontal passage. Early morning lows will be down in the 30s both Thursday and Friday morning, with a freeze likely for the colder valleys. These temperatures are very seasonal for early February.
WEEKEND PEEK: Weather weenies got a little excited yesterday when the 18Z GFS showed some potential for light snow over Northwest Alabama, but that run was an outlier, and remains one this morning. Colder air will move into the state, but the air looks dry. There is a pretty good chance we won’t get past the 40s Saturday despite a mostly sunny sky, and by daybreak Sunday we will be well down in the 20s, with potential for upper teens for the colder valleys of North Alabama. Sunday looks sunny but cool with an afternoon high in the low 50s.
LONG RANGE: Everybody is asking… “will we have a winter in Alabama?”. Remember, just because we have a mild January, that doesn’t mean the rest of the winter will be mild. And, the northern hemisphere is very, very cold; we are the oasis of warmth here in the continental U.S.
You really want to see the NAO (North Atlantic Oscillation) flip negative for a good cold air intrusion here that might stay a little while, and so far that isn’t happening. The ensembles due trend downward at mid-month, however, and we will keep an eye on that trend.
The operational global models are all over the board… the ECMWF shows a severe weather look here at mid-month, while the GFS shows a snow look for Tennessee and Kentucky. Can’t trust anything beyond seven days, of course, but I think many of us in the weather business have a gut feeling we might have some late season winter weather mischief late this month or in March. But, that is a feeling, not a forecast. We will just have to wait and see.
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I will on the campus of the University of Montevallo this morning speaking to a class…look for the next Weather Xtreme video here by 3:30 or so this afternoon. Enjoy the day!
Category: Alabama's Weather
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James Spann is one of the most recognized and trusted television meteorologists in the industry. He holds the AMS CCM designation and television seals from the AMS and NWA. He is a past winner of the Broadcast Meteorologist of the Year from both professional organizations.Subscribe
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