Severe Storms Possible Tomorrow Night?
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ACTIVE PATTERN: Light rain is tapering off across Alabama this morning, and temperatures are well above freezing as forecast. Most places are hovering around the 40 degree mark with lows clouds. If we are lucky we might see a few peeks of sunshine later today, but the sky will stay generally cloudy. The high today will be in the mid 50s. We finally clear out tonight.
SEVERE WEATHER RISK? Still some questions, but SPC now has much of Alabama in their standard “slight risk” of severe weather for late tomorrow night. During the day tomorrow, we expect a mix of sun and clouds with a high soaring into the upper 60s, maybe touching 70 degrees over parts of West Alabama. This will lead to some surface based instability as the next short wave approaches the state.
Unfortunately, the main window for severe storms will come from about midnight tomorrow night through 8:00 a.m. Thursday. Another pre-dawn situation while most will be asleep.
The main issue is instability; most models keep surface based CAPE well below 500 j/kg, which is pretty marginal for a big severe weather event. Shear is high, however, with low level helicity values certainly supportive of sustained, and possibly rotating updrafts.
With the low CAPE values, I would suggest this is a somewhat marginal severe weather threat, but should the instability be higher than forecast, the risk will be greater. We will take a close look later today as new data arrives.
FRIDAY AND THE WEEKEND: Friday looks like a nice day with ample sunshine and a high in the low 60s. Beyond that, forecast confidence drops off.
The GFS seems to be in lala land and is rejected. The ECMWF shows good consistency, with a surface low near, or just south of the Central Gulf Coast Saturday. This feature should spread rain into much of Alabama during the day Saturday. The most widespread rain should be along and south of I-20, but the 00Z run shows rain possible now as far north as the Tennessee border. Then, the rain ends Saturday night as the system rolls up the eastern seaboard, and begins to “bomb out” as a nor’easter off the mid-Atlantic coast. Our friends up in the Washington, DC/Baltimore area need to keep an eye on this for a potential big snow event.
Here at home Sunday looks dry and cooler with a high in the 49-54 degree range.
NEXT WEEK AND BEYOND: Looks like tranquil weather for Alabama early next week with seasonal temperatures. Out in the longer range (better known as the land of voodoo), the GFS has shown an occasional icy look for parts of the Deep South late in the month. See the Weather Xtreme video for the details and graphics.
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I will be down in Montgomery today as Governor Bentley makes the “severe weather awareness week” proclamation…. this year the week is February 19-24th. Look for the next Weather Xtreme video here by 3:30 or so this afternoon. Enjoy the day!
Category: Alabama's Weather
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James Spann is one of the most recognized and trusted television meteorologists in the industry. He holds the AMS CCM designation and television seals from the AMS and NWA. He is a past winner of the Broadcast Meteorologist of the Year from both professional organizations.Subscribe
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