Severe Weather Will Be Limited to Southern Half of Alabama

Showers and storms are spreading northeastward across Louisiana, Mississippi and western and southern Alabama this afternoon. The rain was starting to move into the Birmingham metro area just before 12:30. Light rain was falling at Tuscaloosa. There is lightning in the elevated thunderstorms that cover much of Central Mississippi at this hour. Recently saw a stroke near Livingston in Sumter County. The area of rain and storms is about 350 miles across. With a northeastward motion at 30-35 mph, you can tell it will probably rain for awhile this afternoon and tonight as a fairly strong storm system crosses the Deep South tonight.  Storms could be severe over South Alabama, but the chance of any severe weather in central Alabama is almost zero.

MAP WALL:  ON the weather maps this afternoon, we find the axis of a big upper trough over western Texas.  It is pushing east.  A low pressure system is over the Texas coast near Houston.  A warm front extends along the Gulf Coast westward to near Panama city.  The low will track northeastward over the next 24 hours.  By morning, it will be near Lanett in East Alabama, getting ready to head into Georgia.

RAIN AND STORMS:  Along the southern periphery of the precipitation mass, the storms are heavy.  Two tornado watches are in effect, one for southeastern Louisiana and coastal Mississippi until 3 p.m. and extreme South Alabama and Northwest Florida until 5 p.m.  One line of intense storms was pushing toward Mobile early this afternoon.  Severe thunderstorm warnings and a couple of tornado warnings are in effect over southeastern Louisiana and southern Mississippi. 

The northward extent of any severe weather will be the warm front that is trying to advance northward.  It might get as far north as I-85 this evening, so most of Central Alabama should have no problems with severe weather tonight.  But there will be several hours of moderate to heavy rain.  Over an inch and one half of rain had fallen at Natchez this morning.  There are flash flood warnings to the southwest of Alabama as well, but we don’t really expect problems here.

One half to one inch of rain will fall in area along and north of I-20 between now and Sunday morning.  Areas south of that will see more, which is good news for drought stricken Southeast Alabama.  Most of the lightning will be along and south of the warm front.   There will be scattered lightning strokes in the elevated storms north of the warm front.  They will produce some loud thunder, but that will be about as intense as it gets.

SUNDAY:  That upper trough will be lumbering across Alabama and Mississippi by morning.  There will be some clouds and light showers on the backside of the system as it lifts northeastward.  This activity will affect the Tennessee Valley tomorrow, although we can’t rule out a few isolated showers into Central Alabama.  Temperatures tomorrow will have a hard time climbing with a cold northwesterly flow on the back side of the strengthening upper low as if lifts away from Alabama, so highs will be near the morning lows, around 50-54F.   There will also be a strong northwesterly wind that will make it feel even colder.  Skies will be slow to clear, but you will see some patches of blue late in the day.  With clearing skies and relaxing winds tomorrow night, temperatures will bottom out in the upper 20s to near freezing by Monday morning.

Category: Alabama's Weather, Severe Weather