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Active Weather In The Days Ahead

| February 21, 2012 @ 3:47 pm

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THIS AFTERNOON: What a beautiful day it has turned out to be after some morning clouds and light rain. Nothing on the radar this afternoon, and temperatures are well up in the 60s, a little warmer than forecast. In fact, Tuscaloosa has hit 71 degrees at 3:00… Birmingham is not far behind with 69. West to southwest winds are gusting to 20 mph in spots.

REST OF THE WEEK: Let me say up front that many questions remain unanswered, and it is a complex and challenging forecast. No doubt some changes will need to be made, but this is what we know now…

TOMORROW: SPC has introduced the standard “slight risk” of severe weather for the northern quarter of Alabama tomorrow afternoon and tomorrow evening. An upper impulse will scoot through the Tennessee Valley, and could produce a few scattered showers and storms over North Alabama, and where storms do form they could produce gusty winds and some hail. There really is no significant tornado threat with any storms that form tomorrow. In fact, most of the state will be dry with a mix of sun and clouds, and a high in the low 70s. The best chance of a storm will be along and north of I-20, and even there they will be pretty widely spaced tomorrow afternoon.

THURSDAY/FRIDAY: The NAM and the GFS suggest Thursday will be a delightful day, with a partly sunny sky, a spring-like high in the mid 70s, and a gusty south wind. But, showers and storms should form late in the day over the Mid-South, west of our state, and then move in here Thursday night.

SEVERE WEATHER THREAT: We continue to see some very impressive forecast STP (Significant Tornado Parameter) values off the NAM, with a favorable combination of shear and instability. Like most cool season events, the instability is nothing like you would get around here in April, but I still think surface based CAPE values can easily exceed 1,000 j/kg Thursday evening if we indeed reach the mid 70s.

SPC has an enhanced severe weather risk (30 percent) right on top of us, and into adjacent parts of Mississippi and Georgia Thursday night into early Friday morning. We still believe all modes of severe weather will be possible; large hail, damaging winds, and isolated tornadoes. But, there remains some uncertainty over the event due to model inconsistencies. We will have a much better feel for this tomorrow morning. See the Weather Xtreme video for all of the graphics and more details.

The 12Z runs are a little slower, and for now we will forecast the main window for severe weather in Alabama from about 9:00 p.m. Thursday through 6:00 a.m. Friday.

We do note the ECMWF is an outlier, suggesting the storms hold off until Friday afternoon. For now we will forecast the showers and storms to end Friday morning from west to east, with clearing by Friday afternoon. The day will be breezy and cooler with highs in the mid 50s.

OUR WEEKEND: Saturday will be dry with a sunny sky. We start the day around freezing, then rise into the mid 50s by afternoon. Beyond that, confidence drops again. The 12Z GFS now shows a band of showers and storms moving through here late Sunday afternoon, Sunday night, and into early Monday morning. The ECMWF holds the rain off until Monday, and we will side with that solution for now, which better matches our ongoing forecast.

And, out into the land of voodoo, still no sign of any seriously cold weather through the first week of March, or late season winter weather mischief.

STORM ALERT 2012: We have moved Thursday’s Storm Alert 2012 show at Pleasant Valley High School in Calhoun County to Monday March 5 due to the threat of severe weather.

WEATHER BRAINS: Don’t forget you can listen to our weekly 90 minute netcast anytime on the web, or on iTunes. This is the show all about weather featuring many familiar voices, including our meteorologists here at ABC 33/40.

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I had a great time today visiting with a big group of senior adults at Mount Vernon Baptist Church in Walker County at Curry. Look for the next Weather Xtreme video here by 7:00 a.m. tomorrow….

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Category: Alabama's Weather

About the Author ()

James Spann is one of the most recognized and trusted television meteorologists in the industry. He holds the AMS CCM designation and television seals from the AMS and NWA. He is a past winner of the Broadcast Meteorologist of the Year from both professional organizations.

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