Gorgeous Spring Day

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I don’t think you can ask for the weather to be more beautiful than it will be today. The upper cold core closed low has moved east of us allowing a nice northwesterly fetch to bring in drier and somewhat cooler air for the day. Dew point should be in the 40s today while the sun will warm things up a bit allowing temperatures to rise into the middle 70s. Just gorgeous!

The upper atmosphere flow will morph into a ridge for us while the primary westerlies are held a bit further north. A strong short wave trough will move along the US-Canadian border Tuesday and Wednesday dampening our ridge somewhat. This will allow a front to drag into the Ohio River Valley.

As the trough digs along the East Coast, it will allow the ridge to build northward over the Central Plains Thursday. This means the front is likely to get down into our area but with little real forcing it looks like we should remain dry.

To this point, the GFS and ECMWF and in excellent agreement! But from here forward they show big differences much like they did last weekend. Both models bring a weak short wave out of the southern Rockies into Texas on Friday. The GFS does very little with this trough keeping it over East Texas through Sunday. The European, on the other hand, brings it further east and digs a strong short wave into the Central Plains on Saturday. By Sunday, the European has a deep closed low over Southeast Missouri with another significant rainfall event for the Southeast US. So, big differences in the models when we get out to the 5 to 7 day time frame. For now, I’m going to remain conservative on rain chances and keep low probabilities into Friday/Saturday. I must note, however, that the European did a much better job with the event of a couple of days ago when we were looking at it last weekend. So I may be hedging more toward the ECMWFs solution.

For the next five days, the weather remains great as we gradually warm back to the lower 80s. Further out into voodoo country, the GFS brings a strong system across the country around April 5th which could bring some fairly significant cold air with it. But the GFS goes back to a more tranquil pattern by the 9th.

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James Spann will be back with the next edition of the Weather Xtreme Video on Monday. I hope you enjoy the wonderful weather. Godspeed.

-Brian-

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Category: Alabama's Weather