Scattered Showers Develop
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THIS AFTERNOON: For the first time in several days we have widely scattered showers and thunderstorms on radar across North Alabama this afternoon, much like a summer day. These will fade away once the sun goes down this evening; otherwise the sky is partly to mostly cloudy with temperatures generally in the 76-81 degree range.
TOMORROW: Still looks like this will be the day with the best coverage of rain. About two hours of rain are likely, with the best chance coming during the afternoon and evening hours, although we can’t rule out a morning shower. The high will drop into the low to mid 70s tomorrow due to the clouds and rain. The NAM is printing 0.33″, while the GFS is at 0.57″. Rain amounts of around 1/2 inch seem likely; some spots could see heavier amounts. The good news is that we don’t expect any severe weather.
THE WEEKEND: Looks mostly dry and very warm. I guess an isolated shower might pop up somewhere on either day, but the risk of rain is very, very small for any one given location. Very good news for the Tuscaloosa Air Show and the Indy races at the Barber Motorsports Park. The high Saturday will be in the low 80s, and Sunday could very well be the warmest day so far this year as April begins; the GFS is now printing a high of 88 for Birmingham… which would beat the old record of 86 (set in 1974) if it verifies. I also note that record high of 86, set on April 1, 1974, was followed by the “Superoutbreak” of tornadoes on April 3-4, 1974. Not saying that will happen this year, of course, but we could very well be looking at severe weather issues early next week.
MONDAY-TUESDAY: The 12Z GFS is little slower with the early week system that will bring severe thunderstorm potential to Alabama. This run suggests the main event comes during the day Tuesday with a strong upper low approaching from the west, interacting with a moist, unstable airmass. This far in advance we can’t be really specific about the modes of severe weather and the timing, but we will be able to do that over the weekend. SPC has defined a severe weather risk for a large part of the Lower Mississippi Valley (west of Alabama for Monday).
LATTER HALF OF NEXT WEEK: Much cooler air blows into Alabama… highs will drop to near 70 on Wednesday, with a low well down in the 40s Thursday. Some of the colder valleys could reach the 30s, and should the upper trough over the eastern U.S. become phased, it could be even colder. Again, Alabama growers will need to monitor forecasts through early April as I fully expect at least one more morning with a frost or freeze threat. See the Weather Xtreme video for all of the graphics and details.
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I had a great time today visiting the pre-schoolers at Gardendale’s First Baptist Church… be looking for them on the Pepsi KIDCAM today at 5:00 on ABC 33/40 News. I will be live at the Barber Motorsports Park at 4, 5 ,and 6:00 as we they get ready for the races this weekend.
And, I will be traveling to Des Moines, Iowa tomorrow morning for a weather conference where I will be speaking; Brian Peters will have the discussion, and hopefully a video update tomorrow morning while I am in the air.
Category: Alabama's Weather
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James Spann is one of the most recognized and trusted television meteorologists in the industry. He holds the AMS CCM designation and television seals from the AMS and NWA. He is a past winner of the Broadcast Meteorologist of the Year from both professional organizations.Subscribe
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