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Warm And Unsettled

| April 3, 2012 @ 6:02 am

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STORMS RETURN: This morning an MCS (mesoscale convective system) is moving along the Gulf Coast, while the weather up on this end of Alabama is quiet. We will bring in a chance of showers and thunderstorms this afternoon and early tonight as the air will become rather unstable, and old boundaries from yesterday’s Mississippi MCS serve as a focus for new storm development. A few strong storms are possible, with the main threat coming from hail and gusty winds. Storms will fade after the sun goes down and the air become more stable.

TOMORROW/THURSDAY: The sky will be cloudy at times, and there will be a chance of showers and thunderstorms both days. While the best chance will come during the afternoon and evening hours, we can’t rule out a late night or morning shower as well. And, like today, the stronger storms could produce hail and gusty winds; the tornado risk remains rather low. But, we do note this is the first week of April, so we will keep a close eye on radar. Rain amounts of at least one inch are likely, with heavier amounts where the stronger storms develop. We stay warm with a high at or just over 80 degrees on both of these days.

FRIDAY AND THE WEEKEND: Cooler air and drier air begins to arrive Friday; the high will drop into the mid 70s, and we will mention just an outside risk of a stray shower. Easter weekend still looks delightful, with sunny pleasant days and clear cool nights. Highs will be in the 70s, with lows mostly in the 50s, although colder spots will start the day in the 40s.

UH OH: All of the sudden the global models are showing a much colder pattern for the eastern half of the U.S. next week. The GFS and the ECMWF both show a long wave upper trough developing, which could pull down much colder air into the Deep South by Tuesday and Wednesday, after some risk of showers Monday. This could bring “blackberry winter” and the risk of frost back on the table. Yes, I know the models had this look about a week ago and it vanished, and the same thing could happen, but remember climatology strongly suggests we almost always have a late season cold snap here in April. Growers beware… we will keep an eye on it in coming days. See the Weather Xtreme video for details.

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Category: Alabama's Weather

About the Author ()

James Spann is one of the most recognized and trusted television meteorologists in the industry. He holds the AMS CCM designation and television seals from the AMS and NWA. He is a past winner of the Broadcast Meteorologist of the Year from both professional organizations.

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