Wet Weather Returns To Alabama

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RAIN ARRIVES: Showers and storms are creeping into far Northwest Alabama as I write this early this morning. This is the band of showers and storms ahead of the weather system that produced severe thunderstorms and tornadoes across the Great Plains Saturday. Thankfully, the primary surface low and upper support is well north of Alabama, and severe weather is not likely around here.

There is some degree of surface based instability, and a strong storm is possible this afternoon, but organized severe weather is not going to happen with this setup. Stronger storms later today, however, could produce some small hail and gusty winds.

The front is going to take it’s time. A wave is expected to form along the front tonight, meaning we will maintain periods of rain and a few thunderstorms in our forecast through tomorrow. Interesting to note the NAM is printing only 0.17″ for Birmingham over the next 48 hours, while the GFS much, much wetter with 1.52″. As usual, the truth is somewhere in between those values, and we will forecast one-half to one inch of rain for North-Central Alabama. The rain will end tomorrow night.

WEDNESDAY/THURSDAY: These two days look nice with ample sunshine and a high in the mid to upper 70s, not too far from average values for mid April in Alabama.

FRIDAY AND THE WEEKEND: A rather strong upper trough will bring the next round of showers and storms to the state Friday night and Saturday. There is no strong surface low and no backed low level winds around here, so the tornado threat looks small, but there could certainly be some strong thunderstorms involved. And, the weather turns cooler Saturday with clouds and rain with a high only in the 60s.

Sunday will be a brighter day with returning sunshine, but we stay cool with a high in the mid 60s after starting the day in the cool 40s.

NEXT WEEK: The GFS and the ECMWF are advertising a high amplitude pattern early next week that will favor chilly air settling into the state. In fact, we might be on the lookout for some scattered frost early Monday, especially over the colder valleys of North Alabama. The GFS is printing a low of 42 for Birmingham, and we all know that means many of the outlying areas will be in the 30s if that verifies. You don’t see frost that often around here past tax day. We will keep an eye on it and fine tune the forecast as we go along.

See the Weather Xtreme video for all of the graphics, details, and more long range ideas.

WEATHER BRAINS: Don’t forget you can listen to our weekly 90 minute netcast anytime on the web, or on iTunes. This is the show all about weather featuring many familiar voices, including our meteorologists here at ABC 33/40. We will record this week’s episode tonight at 8:30… we have some heavy hitters on the show tonight… including Greg Carbin of the Storm Prediction Center, and Jim Stefkovich of NWS Birmingham and Alan Gerard of NWS Jackson as we discuss forecasting last year’s historic April 27 tornado outbreak. Also Dave Freeman of KSN in Wichita will join us as we discuss this week’s severe weather event, along with our own Mike Wilhelm and John Brown, who were in the Great Plains storm chasing. Should be a great show… we begin at 8:30 p.m. CDT and you can listen live via uStream, or later to the produced version on iTunes or on the web.

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Busy day today… I have weather programs at Mount Laurel Elementary in Shelby County… and at Susan Moore School in Blount County. Look for the next Weather Xtreme video here by 3:30 this afternoon. Enjoy the day!

Tags: wet

Category: Alabama's Weather