Unsettled Weather Coming Our Way

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As James has been discussing for the last several days, it appears that the Southeastern US is in for a period of somewhat unsettled weather. And that is not altogether bad since we really can use the rain and the clouds along with the rain will help to keep temperatures down.

The main feature we will be dealing with for the next several days is a weakness or disturbance in the upper air pattern. That disturbance was located this morning over the Northwest Gulf of Mexico and will be moving over Alabama during the next couple of days. With the main westerlies well to the north, this disturbance will essentially sit over the Southeast US providing us with enhanced rain chances through about mid-week.

After about Wednesday, the disturbance weakens a little but we see some remnant of it sticking around for the rest of the week. This will keep us in a regime of more summer-like afternoon showers but still somewhat unsettled. So the forecast will stay wet all week with the greatest rain potential coming during the next three days starting today. Rainfall amounts are expected to be from 1 to 3 inches across the area with the lesser amounts across Northwest Alabama and the highest amounts across Southeast Alabama. So keep the umbrella handy for the next week or so. The rain will be beneficial since we are somewhat dry especially in Southeast Alabama where the drought index is running into the extreme category.

With the main westerlies well to our north, the SPC maintains some slight risk areas in the North Central Plains states. Day 2 does mention the potential for isolated severe storms in South Alabama with the aide of diurnal heating. Damaging wind is the most likely threat but with the upper disturbance an isolated tornado is possible. While rainfall could be fairly heavy from Montgomery to Dothan area, drought conditions suggest that flooding is not likely to be a major issue.

The tropics remain quiet.

Looking further out in voodoo country, the weakness is the upper air pattern over the Southeast US sticks around for several days before the upper ridge finally builds stronger around June 23rd and 24th. With this pattern, we should remain somewhat wet with more clouds to help keep temperatures from climbing to extreme values.

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I expect to have the next video posted by 7:30 or so on Sunday morning. I hope that you have a great day no matter what the weather. Godspeed.

-Brian-

Category: Alabama's Weather