Wet/Stormy Friday

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THIS MORNING: A big mass of rain and storms is over the northern half of Alabama this morning. As I write this, right before the sun is coming up, the heavier storms are from near Montevallo to Moundville to Eutaw to Emelle, and moving south. Nothing severe, but they are producing very heavy rain and lots of lighting. Behind this a large batch of rain covers Northwest Alabama. So far there has been little rain over East Alabama.

This big morning MCS will slowly dissipate in coming hours, and the air will be pretty stable in the wake of the morning rain. It remains to be seen if the air can destabilize enough for strong to severe storms ahead of the surface front this afternoon, but SPC does maintain the standard “slight risk” of severe weather over about the northern half of Alabama. There should be a decent midday break in the rain before additional storms begin to form this afternoon and tonight.

THE WEEKEND: Tricky forecast… your weather will be determined by where the surface front decides to stop. If you are up in the Tennessee Valley, most all of the weekend should be dry with lower humidity. For the I-20 corridor (Tuscaloosa, Birmingham, Anniston), I think we still need to mention at least some chance of a shower or storm tomorrow. Then, by Sunday, the best chance of showers and storms should move down to the southern half of Alabama as the dry air moves deeper into the state.

Let me point out that model agreement is not very good; the RPM is the driest model for us (North/Central Alabama), and out of respect of the really nice cool air behind the front we will lean in that direction. Temperatures will be pleasant over the weekend one way or another with highs in the 80s.

NEXT WEEK: Pretty much the same story… model madness makes for a low confidence forecast. But, for now we will continue with a drier solution for the northern half of Alabama on Monday and Tuesday with lower humidity and cooler nights. The 00Z GFS does try and pull moisture back up this way on those two days, but we won’t make any wholesale changes in the forecast until we see the 12Z model runs. Watch the Weather Xtreme video for complete details.

GULF COAST WEATHER: We expect about 2 to 4 hours of sunshine along the Gulf Coast from Panama City to Gulf Shores through Sunday with scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms each day. Highs will be in the mid to upper 80s, and sea water temperatures remain in the mid 80s.

TROPICS: Tropical Storm Gordon in the middle of the Atlantic is moving east away from the U.S. The disturbance that once was Tropical Depression 7 is over the Bay of Campeche… and is trying to get it’s act together again in the warm water there, but it won’t have much time as it is moving toward the Mexican coast. And, a new wave has emerged off the coast of Africa, but for now little development is expected. Again, check out the Weather Xtreme video for the details.

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Tags: wet

Category: Alabama's Weather