Drier Weather Pattern Setting Up

An all new edition of the ABC 33/40 Weather Xtreme video is available in the player on the right sidebar of the blog. You can subscribe to the Weather Xtreme video on iTunes by clicking here.

THIS MORNING: A well defined surface boundary is draped across Central Alabama this morning. North of the front, the dewpoint is only 57 at Huntsville and Decatur, while to the south the dewpoint at Maxwell AFB in Montgomery is 72. Sure looks like the front is still drifting south, so the best chance of showers and storms today will come over the southern half of the state. I guess we can’t rule out a shower as far north as I-20 this afternoon, but only an outside risk for places like Tuscaloosa, Birmingham, Anniston, and Gadsden. Again today we won’t reach 90; highs should be in the mid to upper 80s.

REST OF THE WEEK: Dry air should cover much of Alabama, meaning partly to mostly sunny days and fair nights tomorrow through Friday. We will enjoy cool mornings early tomorrow and Wednesday with low 60s for most places, and 50s for the cooler spots. Afternoon highs will be mostly in the 87 to 91 degree range, still below average for August in Alabama.

OUR WEEKEND: Moisture increases a bit, but there is no real dynamic forcing, so we will just mention a chance of widely scattered showers and storms Saturday and Sunday with a partly sunny sky. Highs over the weekend will be close to 90; nights won’t be as cool with early morning lows around 70 degrees.

GULF COAST WEATHER: Periods of rain and a few thunderstorms are likely today along the coast from Panama City west to Gulf Shores, but the weather will be drier for the rest of the week, with increasing amounts of sunshine and fewer showers tomorrow through Friday. Look for a high in the mid 80s today, followed by upper 80s along the immediate coast each day for the rest of the week. The sea surface temperature this morning at the Dauphin Island Sea Lab is 82 degrees.

TROPICS HEATING UP: Gordon is still a hurricane this morning near the Azores, and is moving east. A weak disturbance is on the Mexican Gulf Coast (AL95), and it remains to be seen if this will drift inland, or make a run at getting it’s act together. NHC says only a 20 percent chance of development there within the next 24 hours.

There are two tropical waves to watch in the Atlantic; one just off the coast of Africa, and a stronger one about halfway between Africa and the Lesser Antilles. NHC has pegged that one with an 80 percent chance of becoming a tropical depression or storm within 24 hours, and the name will be “Isaac”.

Models are in fairly good agreement over the next 5 days, with the system somewhere near Hispaniola late this week. From there, it remains to be seen if it will turn north, or keep moving west/northwest and become a threat for the Gulf. The GFS has been all over the board with little run to run consistency; the 00Z GFS brings it near Key West, with a turn toward Tampa Bay early next week, but that position could be several hundred miles off.

While there is no evidence there will be a strong upper trough over the eastern U.S. this weekend to force the north turn, we have to remember there has been a mean upper trough there for several weeks, so a weakness in the ridge north of the system would not be a complete surprise, which would make this more of an East Coast threat instead of a Gulf system. But it is just too early to call. See the Weather Xtreme video for all of the graphics and complete details.

WEATHER BRAINS: Don’t forget you can listen to our weekly 90 minute netcast anytime on the web, or on iTunes. This is the show all about weather featuring many familiar voices, including our meteorologists here at ABC 33/40. The Alabama state climatologist, Dr. John Christy, joins us tonight; you can watch live at 8:30 p.m. CDT here.

CONNECT: You can find me on all of the major social networks…

Facebook
Twitter
Google Plus

Look for the next Weather Xtreme video here by 3:30 or so this afternoon. Enjoy the day!

Tags: drier

Category: Alabama's Weather