Isaac Moving Steadily To The West
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GRAPHICS TELL THE STORY: Let me encourage you up front to watch the afternoon Weather Xtreme video… it has all of the graphics that go along with this discussion and will probably help you make more sense out of the busy tropical weather situation.
HERE AT HOME: Another delightful day; temperatures are generally in the 85 to 89 degree range this afternoon with a good supply of sunshine through scattered clouds. Quite frankly, our weather looks pretty dry over the next seven days, with the assumption that Isaac won’t directly impact our weather. Humidity levels will slowly rise by Friday and the weekend, and we will introduce a chance of widely scattered showers Saturday and Sunday, but I think most communities will stay rain-free.
TD 10: Before we get into the situation with Isaac, we note a new tropical depression, as expected, formed east of Isaac this morning, and it should become Tropical Storm Joyce in coming days. This will move into the higher latitudes, passing north of the Leeward Islands and Puerto Rico in 3-5 days, and all models show this to recurve well before impacting the U.S.
EYES ON ISAAC: Looks like recon data at mid-afternoon suggests the 12Z models could have initialized our tropical storm too far south. That could very well be the reason for the westward shift in most of the tracks. But, the overall idea here has not really changed much.
Isaac remains a minimal tropical storm with sustained winds of 45 mph. It is moving west rather rapidly at 21 mph, and will move through the Leeward Islands this evening. Lots of land will be involved in the forecast track… across the mountainous island of Hispaniola, and then across Cuba. I am not sure this reaches hurricane strength at anytime over the next five days; but it will bring potential for life threatening flooding to Haiti and the Dominican Republic as it moves through.
The NHC track has Isaac as a minimal hurricane north of Key West Monday morning. Could very well be the case, but I would not be shocked if the track is adjusted a bit to the east again in coming days. Yes, I am fully aware of the ECMWF’s nasty 12Z look with a Camille type hurricane coming into coastal Mississippi. But, that is a total outlier, and is rejected for now.
Of the top 10 analogs for Isaac, 8 of the 10 were hurricanes that did not enter the Gulf of Mexico. It is mainly for this reason I still believe the odds of Isaac becoming a Gulf of Mexico storm are still rather low at this point.
The main impact for the Florida peninsula will be heavy rain early next week on Monday, and possibly Tuesday. Places like Miami, Fort Lauderdale, Daytona, and maybe even Orland and Tampa will be soaked. But, this won’t be a destructive hurricane and I do not expect it to disrupt the political convention in Tampa. Despite what the national media talking heads say.
Here are the main thoughts this afternoon…
*Alabama will remain on the dry side of Isaac, and we expect little if any rain here. Maybe a little for the southeast corner of the state.
*I don’t expect any direct issues for the Central Gulf Coast for now (Panama City west to Gulf Shores).
*The main issue for the Florida Peninsula will be from heavy rain and the flooding potential.
*Isaac will move slowly northeast, wetting down much of the Atlantic coast region of the U.S. next week. Again, heavy rain and coastal flooding will be the biggest issues.
*There is very little skill in forecasting the intensity of a tropical system 5 days in advance, and potential for significant forecast track errors, so keep an eye on the forecast for possible changes in coming days.
AT THE BEACH: The weather down on our Gulf Coast actually looks great through the weekend, with about 7 to 9 hours of sun each day and only widely scattered showers or storms; highs will be in the 87 to 90 degree range. Sea water temperatures remain in the mid 80s.
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Category: Alabama's Weather
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James Spann is one of the most recognized and trusted television meteorologists in the industry. He holds the AMS CCM designation and television seals from the AMS and NWA. He is a past winner of the Broadcast Meteorologist of the Year from both professional organizations.Subscribe
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