Dry Pattern For Alabama Continues

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SUNNY DAYS: Before we get into the details on Tropical Storm Isaac, we need to point out that our benign weather pattern will continue for the next 5 to 7 days with little in the way of significant rain opportunities here. Afternoons will be a little warmer, with a high around the 90 degree mark through early next week, and humidity levels will rise a bit as well. Still, nothing too hot for August.

TROPICS: Tropical Depression 10, the system east of Isaac, will be a higher latitude storm, and should recurve before reaching the U.S. It could become Tropical Storm Joyce along the way, and could be close to Bermuda early next week, but any U.S. impact is very, very unlikely.

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EYES ON ISAAC: Isaac remains a very disorganized and weak tropical storm, with sustained winds of only 40 mph this morning. It is finally slowing down a bit, which should help it get better organized, but interaction with Hispaniola and Cuba will most likely keep this a fairly minimal tropical storm in the short term.

We should point out it will produce very heavy rain across the Dominican Republic and Haiti, and serious flooding issues will be possible there.

Here are our Thursday morning bullet points…

*Isaac will not be able to really intensify until it clears the northern coast of Cuba, and should not be a major, destructive hurricane when it impacts the Florida Peninsula.

*There is actually pretty decent model agreement in the track. The ECMWF remains the outlier to the west, showing a landfall near Pensacola (but it has shifted east), and the NAM remains the outlier to the east, keeping Isaac east of Florida. The 00Z GFS ensembles look good; the system will run from near Key West north, near the Florida West Coast, or perhaps just offshore in the far eastern Gulf, with a landfall somewhere around Apalachee Bay Tuesday.

*Remember, the heaviest rain will be on the east side of the circulation, and this track puts much of the Florida Peninsula (NOT the panhandle) in a position to receive soaking, tropical rains that could lead to flooding. Places like Miami, Orlando, Tampa, Daytona Beach, and Jacksonville will be soaked in the Monday-Tuesday time frame.

*The amount of intensification will all depend on the track. If Isaac’s center is over the far eastern Gulf, it could strengthen pretty quickly, but if the center remains inland over the peninsula it will have a hard time. One way or another, I still believe the main threat is from heavy rain and flooding, but we will have to watch for any surprise intensification. The ability to forecast intensity of tropical systems is not good 5 days in advance.

*Alabama stays on the dry side, and for this part of the state our weather looks mostly dry next week. The far southeast part of the state, in the general area from Eufaula to Dothan, could see some rain from Isaac, but even that is “iffy”.

*I do not expect any really significant rain from Isaac on the Central Gulf Coast from Gulf Shores over to Destin, based on everything we see now. However, the surf should be pretty rough and red flags will most likely be flying early in the week; the surf will calm down over the latter half of the week as Isaac moves away.

*Rain is possible from Isaac from Panama City east, but again this is a bit “iffy” and will all depend on the track of Isaac. Gut feeling says the most widespread rain shield will be from Apalachicola east.

*As Isaac moves northeast, soaking tropical rain is likely over the Carolinas and the middle Atlantic coast region by the middle of next week.

Remember, with most tropical systems there is a surprise or two along the way, so keep an eye on the forecast here for changes.

BEACH WEATHER: The weather actually looks great on the Central Gulf Coast through Saturday, with about 7 to 9 hours of sunshine each day from Gulf Shores to Panama City and only widely scattered showers. The weather from Sunday on will depend on the track of Isaac as discussed above.

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Tags: dry

Category: Alabama's Weather