Tropical Trouble Brewing
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SHORT TERM: Not much change in Alabama’s weather through Sunday. Partly to mostly sunny days, fair nights. Humidity levels slowly rise, and we will mention only isolated showers. Highs will be close to the 90 degree mark.
WHERE WILL HE GO? We have to remember Isaac is still a disorganized, weak tropical storm in the Caribbean in the early stage of life. Isaac is not expected to reach hurricane status until he enters the Gulf of Mexico early next week after coming off the island of Cuba… top winds this morning remain only 45 mph.
The good news is that all of the dropsonde data from the NOAA Gulfstream IV research aircraft is in the model data we are using this morning, which gives a higher confidence level. But, on the other hand, potential landfall is still five days away, and there can be great errors this far in advance, so more forecast changes are possible, if not likely.
Let’s go to a FAQ (frequently asked questions) format this morning…..
WHERE WILL ISAAC MAKE LANDFALL: Ah, the 64 million dollar question. The 06Z model set actually shifted back east a bit, showing potential landfall anywhere from Gulfport, Mississippi to Apalachicola, Florida. The official NHC track now has landfall near Orange Beach late Tuesday night, just after midnight local time. As stated above, this will probably change again, but with each day confidence is higher.
And, remember the biggest impact and potential damage/flooding will come along and east of the point where the center makes landfall; that is the onshore flow side with the storm surge. Areas west of the landfall center will have an offshore flow, and the impact is not nearly as high.
HOW STRONG WILL THE STORM BE? There isn’t much skill at forecasting the intensity of a tropical cyclone five days in advance. NHC has Isaac as a category one hurricane at the time of landfall with 90 mph winds, but there is a very real chance it will much stronger. If the landfall holds off until late Tuesday night or Wednesday, it will have a longer period of time over a region with very high ocean heat content, including the GOM loop current. It could very well ramp up to a major hurricane (Category three or higher). But, if it moves faster, the NHC idea would be correct. It is proper to make plans for a major hurricane in the potential landfall zone.
WHAT ABOUT NORTH/CENTRAL ALABAMA? Very uncertain… of course… it all depends on the track of Isaac. If the center moves west of us, then we would be on the wet side with potential for heavy rain and flooding during the day Wednesday. In addition, there could be some risk of tornadoes in the spiral bands rotating around the storm center. Most tornadoes embedded in a tropical system are relatively weak, but they still pose a threat. If the center passes east of us, then our impact would be much smaller without flooding issues. One way or another, for now, it looks like Wednesday will be the day with the most serious impact.
DO I NEED TO CANCEL MY BEACH TRIP? Let’s say up front that the weather looks fine on the Gulf Coast through Monday, although the surf will become very rough by Sunday night as Isaac enters the Gulf. The highest impact on the Central Gulf will come Tuesday afternoon through midday Wednesday, based on the current NHC projection. The weather will be just fine by Thursday and Friday; some of the nicest weather you will ever experience on the coast often comes after the passage of a hurricane.
I get so many questions through social media, and I am glad to answer them, but just remember Facebook, Twitter, and Google Plus are not platforms for long form content like we provide… be sure and check the blog for frequent updates over the next five days as Isaac approaches. There will be more changes in the forecast; that is just the nature of forecasting tropical systems.
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I will be in Nashville today speaking to the Middle Tennessee Chapter of the National Weather Association…. not sure I will be able to crank out a Weather Xtreme video this afternoon, but I will have notes throughout the day as new data arrives, and a full discussion will be posted by 3:30 or so. Enjoy the day and stay tuned!
Category: Alabama's Weather
About the Author (Author Profile)
James Spann is one of the most recognized and trusted television meteorologists in the industry. He holds the AMS CCM designation and television seals from the AMS and NWA. He is a past winner of the Broadcast Meteorologist of the Year from both professional organizations.Subscribe
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