Entering Autumn on a Dry Note

| September 22, 2012 @ 7:26 am

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What a wonderful week we’ve had. Those cool morning temperatures have felt great! And the warm afternoons have not been too bad, either.

And it appears likely we will remain dry for the next 5 to 7 days as the upper trough weakens somewhat while a surface high pressure system maintains a grip on the overall weather pattern for us. Plus the sounding from the Shelby County airport from last night shows how dry the atmosphere over Central Alabama is.

The surface high should settle into the Ohio River Valley between now and Monday bringing us a reinforcing shot of cool, dry air. Lows by Monday and Tuesday morning should come in around the 50-degree mark with some of the cooler spots getting into the 40s.

The upper trough weakens as the surface high settles into the area for the latter half of the week. This should spell a gradual moderating trend for us with afternoon highs warming to the middle 80s by the latter part of next week. With the surface high positioned to the northeast of us, we should keep the Gulf cut off so I do not expect to see much moisture return until Saturday. By that time there should also be a trough in the upper atmosphere approaching from the west to bring us some chance of rain Saturday. This does verge on voodoo country, so confidence is not especially high. Showers will depend on how the moisture return sets up.

SPC has a slight risk for the upper Mid-Atlantic Coastal Region from East Central New York to the Delmarva Peninsula. The main threat appears to be damaging wind especially during the afternoon hours as the afternoon heating aides thunderstorm development.

And the tropics have become quieter as we enter Autumn! Nadine has faded while the area of disturbed weather near the Bahamas does not have much chance for development.

Looks like we could see a wet event around October 1st with dry weather after that.

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Our weather historian, Bill Murray, mentioned that yesterday was the anniversary of the 1938 New England Hurricane that surprised weather forecasters. Forecasters thought the storm was headed out to sea, but instead it hit Long Island and then moved across New England with 100 mph winds. The storm caught everyone by surprise. The water in downtown Providence, Rhode Island, rose to nearly fourteen feet. Waves of 30 to 40 feet on top of the storm surge caused incredible damage on the Rhode Island and southern Massachusetts coastlines. Wind downed literally thousands and thousands of trees across New England. A total of 600 people died and damage was figured at $387 million. Now, I’m not quite old enough to remember this one, but it is worthwhile noting that I do remember my father talking about this storm. He owned a farm in West Central New Hampshire at the time, and I can recall him speaking about the tremendous tree damage in his area.

Enjoy the day. I do expect to have the next Weather Xtreme Video posted by 8 am or so on Sunday morning. Godspeed.


Category: Alabama's Weather

About the Author ()

Brian Peters is one of the television meteorologists at ABC3340 in Birmingham and a retired NWS Warning Coordination Meteorologist. He handles the weekend Weather Xtreme Videos and forecast discussion and is the Webmaster for the popular WeatherBrains podcast.

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