Early Afternoon Update

Clouds are thick across Alabama on this Sunday afternoon as copious moisture spreads over the state ahead of a developing low pressure system that is west of Alexandria, Louisiana at this hour.

A shield of moderate to occasionally heavy rain extends across North Central Mississippi, curving back into Southwest Alabama, generally along and ahead of the warm front from the low.

Thunderstorms are developing to the south of the low over southern Louisiana. The SPC says that a severe weather watch is possible soon for parts of southern Mississippi and southeastern Louisiana.

Temperatures are cool across Central Alabama, in the upper 60s to lower 70s with a good bit of light rain around.

The activity to our south and west is pushing northeast and will overspread Central Alabama this afternoon along and ahead of a warm front.

By tonight, the low will be south of Jackson, MS. By tomorrow morning, the low will be near Meridian, and during the day on Monday, it will move to near Tupelo. Areas north of I-20 may see two inches or more of rainfall by early Monday morning, with amounts tapering to around one inch over South Central Alabama.

SEVERE WEATHER THREAT: As the low pivots into Central Mississippi overnight, a cold front will push eastward into West Central and Southwest Alabama. As it does thunderstorms will push into Alabama. Some of these could be strong to severe, starting after midnight tonight in Southeast Alabama and pushing northeast into much of Central Alabama during the morning hours.

Instability is the question mark, but there could be enough to produce strong updrafts as the low lifts very moist air northward from the Gulf. Wind shear profiles will definitely be favorable for rotation. So we will watch for the threat of severe thunderstorms with damaging winds and even the outside possibility of a tornado late tonight and early tomorrow morning.

The SPC has outlooked areas from southern Pickens, Sumter, Greene and Hale Counties southward and westward with their standard severe weather risk forecast for late tonight and almost all of the state for Monday.

Category: Alabama's Weather, Severe Weather