Rainy Weather Coming Our Way

The latest edition of the ABC 33/40 Weather Xtreme Video is available in the player below. You can subscribe to the Weather Xtreme Video on iTunes by clicking here.

Looks like the weather is going to be rainy for the next several days thanks to an abundance of tropical moisture, a surface low coming out of East Texas, and an upper level trough/closed low that will be moving slowly by us over the next several days.

The surface low will be tracking across Louisiana today and into northern Mississippi/Northwest Alabama on Monday providing us with a period of relatively wet and cloudy weather. For today, look for highs to reach the upper 70s, so not much temperature change thanks to the clouds and rain. Rain will be occurring off and on with some heavier showers embedded in the larger area of rain.

Monday we may see a risk of severe weather thanks to this overall pattern. However, it is not a crystal clear severe weather scenario. First, we have lots of moisture, perhaps too much, with precipitable water values climbing over 2 inches. That along with the fact that the sounding will be very wet works against severe weather. Also working against severe weather is the fact that lapse rates are expected to be weak so the instability will be limited. Surface heating will be limited, too, since we should remain essentially cloudy for the day on Monday. Supporting severe weather, however, are modest low level wind profiles which may lead to some low level circulations. This is the case with low CAPE and strong shear environments like I expect to see Monday. Monday evening a developing jet aloft coming out of the western Gulf could increase the tornadic potential for Mississippi and Alabama. Tornadoes that may occur are likely to remain in the weak category and be somewhat short lived. The question still remains as to how much severe weather we get because of the thermodynamic conditions. The overall pattern, though, does bear watching.

The surface and upper air features move into the Ohio River Valley on Tuesday which should provide us with improving conditions. Rain should be ending, though I do expect to see clouds sticking around for much of the day. Sunshine returns on Wednesday and we should remain dry through Friday.

Another trough rotating through the long wave trough over the eastern half of the country should be enough to bring a front into our area on Saturday. There will be some passing clouds and perhaps some isolated showers, but with relatively little moisture for the front to work with, I do think rain coverage and amounts will be quite limited. That front paves the wave for dry weather Sunday and Monday and with thickness values dropping due to the long wave trough we are likely to see highs only in the middle 70s.

Nadine is still moseying around in the Atlantic. Outside of the Azores, Nadine is no threat to land and is expected to go sub-tropical AGAIN by late in the upcoming week. I’m still convinced that Nadine and the Energizer Bunny are related.

Looking further afield, dry and warm weather is expected for us around the 12th of October, with another traveling system bringing a shot at some rain around the 15th.

Don’t forget to listen to our weekly netcast anytime on the web or on iTunes. This is the show all about weather featuring many familiar voices including our meteorologists here at ABC 33/40. You can even listen here on the blog; look for the player on the top left.

And you can follow news and weather updates from ABC 33/40 on Twitter here. Stay in the know by following the whole gang – here’s the list…

Upgraded my operating system to Mountain Lion last night. I should know better than to do it in the middle of a weekend. Little differences in the OS along with some needed updates to other programs slowed me down this morning. I should know better, but I have to say it was one of the smoothest upgrades I’ve seen. James Spann will be back first thing Monday morning with the next edition of the Weather Xtreme Video. Stay tuned to the Blog for updates on the weather unfolding for us today and Monday. Godspeed.

-Brian-

Category: Alabama's Weather