Storms Arrive Late Tonight
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CALM MORNING: All is quiet across Alabama this morning; the sky is fair and temperatures are generally in the 50s. We stay rain free during the day today, with ample sunshine and a high in the upper 70s.
TO THE WEST: SPC has expanded the “slight risk” of severe weather for late this afternoon and tonight; it now runs from near Jackson, MS to St. Louis, MO. And, within that there is an enhanced risk of severe weather from near Vicksburg to Memphis. We might even see a few discrete supercells in this region this evening with tornado potential. All of the activity should roll over into a long squall line late tonight with potential for damaging winds, and this will move into the northwest corner of Alabama sometime between 10:00 p.m. and midnight.
OVERNIGHT STORMS: No doubt the potential for strong storms overnight in Alabama is higher; 00Z model runs are more aggressive with thunderstorm parameters, but they still should slowly weaken as they move through the state. The primary limiting factor is the instability; surface based CAPE values should remain under 200 j/kg overnight. But, the forcing looks much better on recent model runs, and we might need to burn the midnight oil in the weather office.
Rain amounts should be in the 1/4 to 1/2 inch range, with potential for isolated heavier amounts to almost one inch, over Northwest Alabama.
I would suggest the main risk of severe weather in Alabama overnight will be along and west of a line from Tuscaloosa to Huntsville between midnight and 3:00 a.m. And, the main risk will come from strong straight line winds with the squall line. Of course, we will need to keep an eye on the line for bowing segments and embedded circulations. Be sure and check the afternoon update here later today.
TOMORROW: Showers will end very early; by 5 a.m. in Tuscaloosa; 7 a.m. in Birmingham, and 9 a.m. in Anniston. The sky becomes sunny, and the high should near 70 degrees as a new surge of cool, dry air blows into the state.
FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY: The weather looks excellent. Sunny mild days, clear cool nights. Highs in the 70s, lows in the 40s.
FOOTBALL PREVIEW: Excellent high school football weather this week, clear and cool tomorrow and Friday night with temperatures dropping into the 50s by the second half of the games; you will need a jacket.
Alabama and Auburn are playing in Tennessee this weekend; Auburn will take on Vanderbilt in Nashville (11:21 a.m. kickoff), while Alabama will play the Tennessee Volunteers in Knoxville at 6:00 p.m. The weather will be fine at both game sites; for the Auburn game temperatures will rise through the 60s with a sunny sky. Alabama’s game will kick off with a temperature near 60 degrees, then falling through the 50s during the game.
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Category: Alabama's Weather
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James Spann is one of the most recognized and trusted television meteorologists in the industry. He holds the AMS CCM designation and television seals from the AMS and NWA. He is a past winner of the Broadcast Meteorologist of the Year from both professional organizations.Subscribe
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