New Depression in the Caribbean

The National Hurricane Center (NHC) has upgraded the area of disturbed weather in the Caribbean Sea to a depression. I’ve put the first advisory below.

It appears that the various computer models are closely clustered in their projections taking it northward across the eastern end of Cuba and across the eastern portion of the Bahamas.

The depression is expected to become a tropical storm later today or tonight, and when that happens, it will be dubbed Sandy!

-Brian-

BULLETIN
TROPICAL DEPRESSION EIGHTEEN ADVISORY NUMBER   1
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL182012
1100 AM EDT MON OCT 22 2012

...TROPICAL DEPRESSION FORMS OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA...
...TROPICAL STORM WATCH ISSUED FOR JAMAICA...


SUMMARY OF 1100 AM EDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...13.5N 78.0W
ABOUT 320 MI...515 KM SSW OF KINGSTON JAMAICA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...30 MPH...45 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...SW OR 230 DEGREES AT 5 MPH...7 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1003 MB...29.62 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...

THE GOVERNMENT OF JAMAICA HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM WATCH FOR
JAMAICA.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* JAMAICA

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 48 HOURS.  A
HURRICANE WATCH AND/OR A TROPICAL STORM WARNING COULD BE REQUIRED
FOR JAMAICA LATER TODAY.

INTERESTS IN EASTERN CUBA...HISPANIOLA...AND THE BAHAMAS SHOULD
MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 1100 AM EDT...1500 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION
EIGHTEEN WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 13.5 NORTH...LONGITUDE 78.0 WEST.
THE DEPRESSION IS MOVING TOWARD THE SOUTHWEST NEAR 5 MPH...7 KM/H.
THE DEPRESSION IS EXPECTED TO DRIFT WESTWARD TODAY AND TONIGHT.  A
NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD MOTION WITH AN INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED IS
EXPECTED TUESDAY THROUGH EARLY WEDNESDAY.  ON THE FORECAST TRACK...
THE CENTER OF THE CYCLONE SHOULD APPROACH JAMAICA TUESDAY NIGHT OR
EARLY WEDNESDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 30 MPH...45 KM/H...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS.  STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS...AND THE
DEPRESSION IS EXPECTED TO BECOME A TROPICAL STORM LATER TODAY OR
TONIGHT.  THE CYCLONE COULD BE NEAR HURRICANE STRENGTH AS IT IS
APPROACHING JAMAICA ON WEDNESDAY.  AN AIR FORCE HURRICANE HUNTER
AIRCRAFT WILL INVESTIGATE THE DEPRESSION LATER TODAY.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1003 MB...29.62 INCHES.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE IN JAMAICA BY TUESDAY
NIGHT.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY...200 PM EDT.
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...500 PM EDT.

$$
FORECASTER BERG/AVILA

WWWW

Category: Tropical