A Perfect Storm?
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ALABAMA STAYS DRY: There will be lots of buzz in the national media over the potential for a major East Coast storm in the 5-10 day range, but before we discuss that let’s point out that our weather won’t change much through Friday, with mostly sunny warm days and fair cool nights. Highs will be around 80 degrees, with lows in the 50s. An upper ridge will stay in place through mid-week keeping our weather benign.
WEEKEND SITUATION: One thing is for sure… the weather turns sharply colder for the weekend. The 12Z GFS is faster with the timing of the cold front; it has a band of showers moving through late Friday night and Saturday morning, and has all of the rain pretty much over by midday Saturday. A gusty north wind develops as the showers end, and we could very well have a hard time getting out of the 50s; the 12Z GFS is printing a high of 63, and it has a warm bias.
We note temperatures in Alaska at midday today are only in the single digits, and this will be some very chilly air coming down the pike. I really think the model MOS products will be too warm. So, I think we need to lower the high Saturday to around 60 with showers ending during the day with a very chilly and gusty north wind.
Sunday looks chilly and dry. Sunday could be very windy, but that all depends on the developing tropical system off the East Coast of the U.S. We will forecast a high in the low to mid 60s with a decent amount of sun, but strong north winds could make it feel colder.
The first night the wind dies down, whether it is Sunday or Monday night, we will have potential for frost the following morning. And, maybe a freeze for the colder valleys of North Alabama.
PERFECT STORM? Many of you recall the movie about the 1991 “perfect storm”… That cyclone significantly strengthened as a result of the temperature contrast between the cold air to the northwest and the warmth and humidity from the remnants of Hurricane Grace. The low pressure system continued deepening as it drifted toward the U.S. It had an unusual retrograde motion for a nor’easter, beginning a set of meteorological circumstances that occur only once every 50 to 100 years.
No, I doubt if this setup is the same, but everybody along the East Coast will need to watch developments with our new tropical system (now TD 18) in the Caribbean.
There is another disturbance in the Atlantic that should become a tropical storm as well… this one is a higher latitude system that will move northeast and won’t impact the U.S. mainland, but it will most likely get a name soon, and we simply don’t know which one will be Sandy, and which one will be Tony. New NHC advisory packages are due out soon which should give the name game some clarity.
TD 18: This is expected to become a tropical storm over the next 24 hours as it heads north toward Jamaica and the eastern tip of Cuba, and then into the Bahamas. From there, we have model madness.
Most reliable tropical models, and the GFS, begin an eastward component of motion, away from the U.S., early next week.
However, two global models are stirring up a fuss within the meteorological community….
The ECMWF (European) brings the system into the Cape Cod area Wednesday night of next week…
*The GEMS (Canadian) brings it into the vicinity of Atlantic City Monday morning.
Both of these scenarios could create an historic type storm due to coastal flooding along the upper Atlantic coast, and massive snows west of the mountains in the very cold air that will be in place. But, let’s remember the Euro has not done well with tropical systems this season. The GFS has actually done a much better job in recent months. And, the GFS keeps this thing well offshore.
And, just for fun, the Japanese model (JMA) takes this thing into North Carolina Outer Banks this weekend. It is never performed well with tropical systems in this region.
WHAT DOES IT ALL MEAN? A low confidence forecast. We really won’t know until this thing gets organized and north of Cuba, which will take a couple of days. We can play the guessing game all day, but there is simply no skill at this stage of calling a forecast track. Take some time to watch the Weather Xtreme video for a good look at the graphics and more details.
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I had a great time today visiting with the 6th graders at Maddox Middle School in Jasper… be looking for them on the Pepsi KIDCAM today at 5:00 on ABC 33/40 News! The next Weather Xtreme video will be posted by 7:00 a.m. tomorrow…
Category: Alabama's Weather
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James Spann is one of the most recognized and trusted television meteorologists in the industry. He holds the AMS CCM designation and television seals from the AMS and NWA. He is a past winner of the Broadcast Meteorologist of the Year from both professional organizations.Subscribe
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