Big Cool Down This Weekend; Eyes On Sandy

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TWO MORE WARM DAYS: Birmingham’s official high yesterday was 80 degrees… and we expect very similar weather today and tomorrow. Partly to mostly sunny days, fair nights, and temperatures about 8 degrees above average.

But, while we enjoy the delightful weather, you can see the players on the field setting up a potentially historic East Coast storm in the days ahead. To the west, the coldest air so far this season is moving steadily south and east with a deep, long wave upper trough forming over the central part of the nation. And, down south, Hurricane Sandy is moving off the coast of Cuba on the northward journey.

THE ALABAMA WEEKEND: The front will move through Friday evening; very little moisture means very little chance of rain. We don’t expect anything more than isolated showers on the front as it passes through.

The weekend will be blustery. Windy and sharply cooler; we will have a hard time getting out of the 50s Saturday, and there is a good chance we won’t get out of the 50s Sunday. Winds will average 15-25 mph both days with potential for gusts to 35 mph, or even higher at times. The highest winds should come Saturday night and Sunday as the pressure gradient tightens up between Sandy to the east, and the Arctic high to the northwest. There will be some clouds around Saturday, but the sun should be out at times. Sunday should feature sunshine in good supply, but the wind will make it very uncomfortable despite the sun.

FROST/FREEZE POTENTIAL NEXT WEEK: The position of the big East Coast storm next week will help in pulling down cold air. All week looks chilly, with highs in the 50s and lows in the 30s. We fully expect the first widespread frost of the season by Tuesday and Wednesday morning (one, or maybe both mornings… depends on when the wind dies down). And, a freeze is possible for the colder spots. The week will be dry, and Halloween will be very cool for the trick or treaters.

HISTORIC EAST COAST STORM: Major potential for an East Coast storm in the days ahead. Take some time to watch the Weather Xtreme video for all of the graphics and details, but there is no real change in thinking. Here is a breakdown of the various model solutions….

GFS: The primary American model is an outlier (the 00Z run). It takes the big storm, which will be a cold core nor’easter, into the coast of Maine around the middle of next week. Other models are faster, and more to the south.

ECMWF: The European model has been very consistent, and it drives the huge storm into the Chesapeake Bay region late Monday with a core pressure of about 950 mb. This is much deeper than the big 1993 storm (the one that brought a blizzard to Alabama), and if this solution is correct would bring massive amounts of coastal flooding all the way from Maryland north to Maine, power outages to millions, inland flooding, downed trees and power lines, and a huge snow storm for some areas from the Appalachian mountains west. Very nasty look for Washington, Baltimore, Philadelphia, New York City, Boston… etc…

NOGAPS: The Navy model is very similar to the Euro, but faster. It brings the center near the coast late Sunday night.

GEMS: The Canadian is between the Euro and the GFS, bringing the center of circulation to near Long Island Monday night.

NAM: The North American mesoscale model runs only through 84 hours, and at the end of the 06Z run it has the center of the storm very close to the North Carolina Outer Banks Sunday evening.

BOTTOM LINE: Still too early for a specific forecast on where the lowest pressure moves onshore with what promises to be a huge, high impact storm, but everybody on the coast from North Carolina to Maine needs to make preparations now for power outages that could last for days, and even weeks in some cases, and coastal flooding that could cut people off for a very long period of time. We also note that many leaves are still on the trees in this region, and back in the very cold air where heavy snow falls, power outages are very real possibility as well. Below is our WeatherBrains special from last night, and we go into the potential impact in a detailed fashion.

FOOTBALL WEATHER: For the high school games tonight, the sky will be mostly fair with temperatures dropping from the low 70s at kickoff into the 60s by the second half. Then, tomorrow night, just a small risk of a brief shower, otherwise the sky will be mostly cloudy with temperatures in the 60s.

The Magic City Classic is Saturday afternoon at Legion Field (Alabama State vs Alabama A&M; 2:30 p.m. kickoff); the weather will be windy and very cool with a kickoff temperature near 60 degrees, falling into the 50s during the second half. Strong north winds will average 12-25 mph, with potential for gusts over 30 mph.

Saturday night Alabama will host the Mississippi State Bulldogs at Bryant-Denny Stadium (7:30 p.m. kickoff). The sky will be mostly fair, but the weather will be windy and cold. Temperatures will drop from near 54 degrees at kickoff into the 40s during the second half. North winds of 10-20 mph will make it feel colder. Auburn will host Texas A&M at Jordan-Hare Stadium Saturday night (6:00 p.m. kickoff); pretty much the same story as Tuscaloosa. Mostly fair with temperatures falling from near 58 at kickoff into the 40s by the fourth quarter. Strong north winds will average 10-20 mph, with potential for higher gusts.

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I will be doing a weather program this afternoon at Liberty Park Elementary School in Vestavia… look for the next Weather Xtreme video here by 4:00 this afternoon. Enjoy the day!

Tags: sandy

Category: Alabama's Weather