Potentially Historic East Coast Storm Ahead; Big Cool-Down Here Saturday

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WILD WEATHER MAP: For weather buffs, maps this afternoon are pretty remarkable. A deep, long wave upper trough is moving into the Central U.S. with the cold air so far this season, and to the southeast we have Hurricane Sandy moving through the Bahamas. The merger of these two features combined with a blocking high over the North Atlantic will set up a potentially historic storm for the East Coast early next week.

THE ALABAMA STORY: One more warm day for our state, but expect a major change to sharply cooler weather over the weekend. The front is now in Arkansas; temperatures range from 48 at Rogers, AR… on the west side of the front… to 81 at Little Rock, on the warm side. We will rise into the upper 70s tomorrow, and we will mention just a slight risk of a shower along and behind the front tomorrow night. Moisture will be very limited, and most places will stay dry.

WINDY, BLUSTERY, CHILLY WEEKEND: The pressure gradient between the Arctic high to the northwest and Hurricane Sandy will be very tight over Alabama both Saturday and Sunday, meaning north winds averaging 15 to 25 mph, with gusts to 35 or higher at times. We sill struggle to reach the low 60s Saturday, and more than likely we won’t get out of the 50s Sunday. I still think the MOS guidance is too warm.

FROST/FREEZE POTENTIAL NEXT WEEK: We will drop well down into the 30s by Tuesday and Wednesday morning of next week. The first morning the wind dies down (perhaps Wednesday), frost will be widespread, and many places could very well see their first freeze of the season. Highs next week will be mostly in the 50s, and no rain with a very dry airmass in place.

SANDY NOTES: The 12Z model data is now clustered with the very deep low pressure center moving into the Atlantic coast of the U.S. somewhere between the DelMarVa peninsula and Cape Cod early next week in the Monday-Tuesday time frame. Here are some notes after reviewing loads of data…

*I am not totally sure this thing becomes “post-tropical”. Many models keep this a warm core, tropical system all the way to the coast. So, there is a very real possibility Sandy stays Sandy until it gets inland. Way too much talk about naming this thing if it does go extra-tropical… big waste of time in my opinion. We need to focus on the forecast instead of some stupid name. This is a serious, life threatening storm that doesn’t need a goofy name.

*Central pressures are under 950 mb at the time of landfall on most models. This will bring winds of well over 100 mph to much of the coastline along and north of the circulation center for about 100 miles.

*There will be major delays early next week for the major NE US airports… DCA IAD BWI PHL JFK LGA EWK BOS and probably more. Air travel will be difficult, if not impossible through some of these airports Monday and Tuesday.

*There is potential for widespread power outages that could effect millions. In some cases, it might be weeks before power is restored from the North Carolina coast north to Maine.

*In the very cold air from the Appalachian mountains west, there is potential for snow that will be measured in feet. This includes much of West Virginia, and parts of PA, OH, VA, and NC. And, because the leaves are still on the trees in many areas, power outages in the heavy snow zone is a real possibility as well.

*Coastal flooding will be very severe, mainly along and north of where the surface low crosses the coast. Some people could be cut off for many days near the coast in low areas.

*Inland flooding is likely as well, with potential for rain amounts of 5-10 inches from Washington to Boston and points west.

*Pressure gradient winds will bring down countless trees and power lines. Not only along the coast, but well inland from North Carolina to Maine.

Be sure and watch the Weather Xtreme video for all the model output and graphics. This storm could very well be one for the ages if the forecast scenario works out.

FOOTBALL WEATHER: For the high school games tonight, the sky will be mostly fair with temperatures dropping from the low 70s at kickoff into the 60s by the second half. Then, tomorrow night, just a small risk of a brief shower, otherwise the sky will be mostly cloudy with temperatures in the 60s.

The Magic City Classic is Saturday afternoon at Legion Field (Alabama State vs Alabama A&M; 2:30 p.m. kickoff); the weather will be windy and very cool with a kickoff temperature near 60 degrees, falling into the 50s during the second half. Strong north winds will average 12-25 mph, with potential for gusts over 30 mph.

Saturday night Alabama will host the Mississippi State Bulldogs at Bryant-Denny Stadium (7:30 p.m. kickoff). The sky will be mostly fair, but the weather will be windy and cold. Temperatures will drop from near 54 degrees at kickoff into the 40s during the second half. North winds of 10-20 mph will make it feel colder. Auburn will host Texas A&M at Jordan-Hare Stadium Saturday night (6:00 p.m. kickoff); pretty much the same story as Tuscaloosa. Mostly fair with temperatures falling from near 58 at kickoff into the 40s by the fourth quarter. Strong north winds will average 10-20 mph, with potential for higher gusts.

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I had a great time today visiting with the first graders at Liberty Park Elementary School in Vestavia Hills… be sure and watch for the kids on the Pepsi KIDCAM on ABC 33/40 News at 5:00. The next Weather Xtreme video will be posted here by 7:00 a.m….

Tags: sandy

Category: Alabama's Weather