Quick Check on Sandy

Sandy is still a hurricane early this afternoon. It definitely has a warm core, with a temperature inside the eye of 24C, vs 17C outside the eye. The plane found maximum flight level winds of 82 mph in the southwestern quadrant just after 11 a.m., with a 91 knot report earlier. They maintain Sandy as a minimal hurricane. Some weakening is possible today, but the system is expected to intensify tomorrow as a strong upper level trough approaches from the west

It is located about 400 miles south of Cape Hatteras. Movement is NE at 9 mph. This motion is expected to continue until Monday, when a hard left is forecast to carry the center of the system to coast between Norfolk and New York City. The official forecast seems to be centered on the Delmarva.

SUMMARY OF 100 PM CDT…1800 UTC…INFORMATION
———————————————-
LOCATION…29.7N 75.6W
ABOUT 245 MI…395 KM NNE OF GREAT ABACO ISLAND
ABOUT 335 MI…540 KM SE OF CHARLESTON SOUTH CAROLINA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS…75 MPH…120 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT…NE OR 35 DEGREES AT 11 MPH…18 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE…961 MB…28.38 INCHES

All of the models still agree on a hard left turn. The timing is the uncertain part, but this has a big impact on where the center will back landfall.

New GFS: Monday night around 7 p.m. on New Jersey Coast south of New York City
Canadian: after midnight early Tuesday near New York City
GFDL: Noon Monday near Delaware Bay as weakening 948 mb storm
HWRF: Noon Tuesday just south of Boston

The European will be coming in shortly.

The key factor the landfall determines is where the onshore winds occur. That’s where the highest storm surge will be. Coastal flooding and erosion will be a problem all along the coast from eastern North Carolina to Maine. Tropical storm force winds (or gale force winds) will impact a wide area from the Outer Banks this afternoon, the rest of eastern North Carolina overnight and then northward up the East Coast tomorrow. Tropical storm force winds should reach the following locations at the following times:

Norfolk: Noon Sunday
Washington: Monday predawn
Atlantic City/Dover DE: 7-9 p.m. Sunday
Philadelphia/New York: midnight tomorrow night
Boston: 9 a.m. Monday

The wind field will expand in the next 24 hours. By tomorrow, tropical storm force winds will cover an area 700 miles across! Strong tropical storm force (which roughly equates to a storm warning or 55-73 mph) will cover an area 300 miles across. They will start affecting the area from the Hampton Roads across the Delmarva early Monday morning, to the New Jersey coast by lunchtime and into New York City late Monday night.

These times are based on the official NHC forecast for the center and wind field.

Hurricane force winds (greater than 74 mph) will reach the coast on the Delmarva Monday afternoon. Places near the track of the center will experience tropical storm conditions for 48 hours!!! They may experience strong tropical storm conditions for 18 hours and hurricane conditions for 10 hours. Mind you, winds won’t be sustained at this level for the entire time, but they there will be periods of sustained winds at these levels at times during the duration. There will be higher gusts as well.

So, you get the picture of the size of the storm. Tree damage will be widespread in the tropical storm force area. There will be coastal flooding and erosion along the coast ahead of the center, especially to the right of the track at landfall. Widespread extended power outages will result.

Tides will run 2-4 feet above normal through early Tuesday south of the Delmarva, with up to five feet from the Delmarva to the coast of Rhode Island.

Very heavy rains will fall across mountainous areas of Pennsylvania, West Virginia and Maryland. 4-12 inches of rain is likely through the Delmarva and down to eastern North Carolina. Flooding will be a problem over inland areas.

Category: Tropical