Alabama 811 | Know What's Below.

Mild Today, Colder Monday with Storms

| November 11, 2012 @ 7:14 am

An all new edition of the ABC 33/40 Weather Xtreme video is available in the player on the right sidebar of the blog. You can subscribe to the Weather Xtreme video on iTunes by clicking here.

Yesterday was a beautiful day with a high in Birmingham of 71, 3 degrees above the 30-year average high for the date. So if you liked yesterday, you should love today, too, as we see plenty of sun with a high again into the lower 70s. But there is a change lurking off to the west.

A strong cold front was located in the Central Plains states along with a very deep trough over the Rockies. The trough is ejecting eastward which should push the front through Alabama on Monday. Clouds will increase today though we should see a good deal of sun. I expect to see the showers and thunderstorms just ahead of the front entering the northwest corner of the state around 12Z or 6 am. The front should move steadily through Alabama during the day with much of the showers and thunderstorms east of Birmingham by 6 pm. As we noted yesterday, it appears that the threat of severe weather is very limited thanks primarily to any real instability. CAPE values are low and LIs are nothing to write home about. So while we could see some lightning, the severe weather threat seems minimal. SPC has a slight risk area over Arkansas, Northeast Texas, and northern Louisiana today, but no organized severe weather for Monday.

Also with the front moving through the state, I expect our high on Monday to come between midnight and 8 am or so, with temperatures steady or falling much of the rest of the day.

Tuesday the weather improves as early morning clouds dissipate and sunshine returns. Patchy frost will occur Tuesday morning and perhaps again on Wednesday morning. There is a small concern in the forecast thinking. Wednesday we will see a weak short wave move through the upper flow, and we should see an easterly flow at the surface. That easterly flow could bring some moisture to Alabama from the east, so clouds and some small chance for light rain are possible. I think this scenario will occur for the eastern counties of Alabama, but it is hard to say how far west these conditions may reach. We’ll watch that.

Weather improves for the rest of the week even with some weak disturbances moving through the upper flow. But with no moisture to work with, those disturbances are likely to produce just a few passing clouds.

Our next reasonably good chance for rain appears to be Sunday night or Monday. Looks also like there is a chance for rain right before Thanksgiving with Thanksgiving Day seeing improving weather. The end of November appears to be mild with no really cold pattern for us to deal with.

And you can follow news and weather updates from ABC 33/40 on Twitter here. Stay in the know by following the whole gang – here’s the list…

James Spann Charles Daniel Ashley Brand
J. B. Elliott Bill Murray Brian Peters
E-Warn (AL wx watches/warnings)

My heartfelt thanks to the 400 plus folks who came out to Storm Alert Xtreme yesterday. It was great to see so many people there, and I really love having a chance to talk with people about the weather. Thanks to everyone for coming and spending much of the day with us to learn about severe weather and storm spotting. James Spann should be back with the next edition of the Weather Xtreme Video bright and early on Monday morning. Have a great day and Godspeed.

-Brian-

Category: Alabama's Weather

About the Author ()

Brian Peters is one of the television meteorologists at ABC3340 in Birmingham and a retired NWS Warning Coordination Meteorologist. He handles the weekend Weather Xtreme Videos and forecast discussion and is the Webmaster for the popular WeatherBrains podcast.

Comments are closed.