Downright Warm for Mon/Tue

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Downright warm weather is ahead for us on Monday and Tuesday ahead of a strong storm system with a strong cold front. Today we’re dealing with a difficult temperature forecast as a wedge pattern, or cold air damming situation, sets up. The GFS MOS guidance suggests 65 will be the high for Birmingham today, but I think the easterly flow from the surface high positioned over eastern Virginia will keep us in the upper 50s.

But the warming sets in solidly tomorrow and Tuesday with a strong southerly flow ahead of the next weather system. A strong trough comes out of the southern Rockies on Tuesday with a deep surface low moving up into the western Great Lakes. The trough reaches the Mississippi River on Wednesday bringing with it a squall line from which we see damaging wind as the biggest threat. But there are timing issues.

The GFS pushes the front through the area very quickly. So fast, in fact, that the GFS shows the front clearing nearly all of Alabama by 18z. The European is much less aggressive on the speed of the system and I think the ECMWF has a better handle on the timing. This would put the biggest severe weather threat for Central Alabama from about 3 am through 6 pm or so. The RPM model is also more reasonable on the speed of the system, but the RPM only goes out 72 hours, so it will be a couple of more runs before it covers all of the Wednesday time frame.

All models show that we get that system gone by late Wednesday which brings winter back to the Southeast US with a long wave trough over the eastern half of the country. That trough position stays put into next weekend, so our temperatures will fall back to lows in the lower 30s and highs in the lower 50s which is typical for late January and early February. We should remain dry through next weekend with just some passing clouds from time to time.

Looking into the longer range of week two, the pattern stays active with another round of wet weather around the 5th and again around the 10th. Still no sign of any extreme cold.

While there remain timing issues for the Wednesday event, it looks fairly potent for a widespread damaging wind event. I would not be surprised to see SPC upgrade the severe weather risk for Wednesday to moderate on Monday or Tuesday as the timing issues get resolved. Be sure to stay tuned to the Blog for the latest information on the developing situation.

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James Spann will be back first thing on Monday with the next edition of the Weather Xtreme Video. Don’t forget to check out the schedule for the 2013 Storm Alert Tour. You’ll get a chance to meet James, Ashley, and Charles and learn a little more about Central Alabama weather. All programs begin at 6:30 pm, so get there early for a good seat. Have a great day and Godspeed.

-Brian-

Category: Alabama's Weather