One Nice Day

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We can put away the plans for the ark for at least today and Sunday as we dry out until the next rain chances arrive on Monday. And with those rain chances comes a threat for severe storms once again. But for today, we will see the morning fog burn off with the clouds holding tough. We may see a few sprinkles from time to time, but the bulk of the rain has moved well off to the south and east of Birmingham. By afternoon we could see some breaks in the clouds, but I do not expect to see an abundance of sunshine until Sunday. Temperatures will remain coolish with highs in the upper 50s.

Sunday should be a nice day with a cool morning but a mild afternoon with a high around 61 and mostly sunny skies. The next storm system begins coming out way late Sunday with the eastward advance of a strong upper low expected to be over North Central Texas on Monday morning. The strong upper low will generate a strong surface low over Southeast Oklahoma which will move across the Ohio River Valley on Tuesday. We expect to see a warm front coming northward out of the Gulf of Mexico on Monday, and the SPC has painted a slight risk area from Southeast Louisiana across southern Alabama and southern Georgia. The big question will be how far north the moisture rich area and instability can push. Right now it would appear that the best chances as shown by SPC will remain across South Alabama. We will need to keep a close eye on the development of this system and watch for any greater northward push to the instabilities.

The upper trough comes by on Tuesday bringing a somewhat raw day with clouds, perhaps some light drizzle, and temperatures that are not expected to change much. Tuesday we will probably see temperatures sticking in the 40s with some spots getting to near 50. And as this trough moves by, we shift into a pattern with a trough over the eastern half of the country bringing another chill down for us and much of the eastern US.

This sets up the trough over the eastern US for the rest of the week and into the weekend, so we should chill down nicely. Just how much of a chill is still in question thanks to some big model differences. The GFS brings a big surge of cold air southward plunging the 540 thickness contour all the way into South Florida. The ECMWF, on the other hand, is not that cold with the 540 contour only coming into the Southeast US. So while both models show a cold pattern, the strength of that cold air is in question.

Expanding into voodoo country, the GFS maintains the cold pattern into the first week of March. The trough over the East Coast finally gets nudged eastward around the 8th and 9th with another deep trough coming out of the Rockies around the 10th and 11th. So the pattern remains somewhat active.

We are already pretty wet for February, and the Monday storms are likely to bring another 1 inch of rain, perhaps a bit more than that especially for South Alabama.

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STORM ALERT 2013, our annual severe weather awareness tour continues through February. We will share lessons learned after the April 27, 2011, generational tornado event, along with other amazing weather stories. Learn how to keep your family safe during severe weather plus have a chance to win some cool prizes as well. The remaining Storm Alert tour date are:
Tuesday February 26 Ohatchee – Ohatchee High School
Thursday February 28 Clay – Clay/Chalkville High School

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Headed out this morning for a pancake breakfast at Helena Elementary School put on by the Helena Kiwanis Club. Great benefit for our schools at $5 for all you can eat! I’m afraid the diet goes out the window again! This remains a busy day with a bell concert to film for some good friends of mine. Enjoy the day and Godspeed.

-Brian-

Category: Alabama's Weather