Alabama 811 | Know What's Below.

Early Sunday Morning Notes

| March 17, 2013 @ 6:29 am

Some interesting times are ahead in the weather office… Brian Peters will be along with a full discussion and a few Weather Xtreme video shortly.

SEVERE WEATHER THREAT TOMORROW: SPC has much of North and Central Alabama in the standard “slight risk” of severe weather tomorrow…

day2otlk_0600

Below is the projected instability (lifted index) at 3:00 tomorrow afternoon from the NAM model…

NAM_221_2013031706_F39_PLI_30_0_MB_ABOVE_GROUND

As you can see, the air will be very unstable, but below is the forecast bulk shear between the surface and 850 mb, and the higher shear values are well to the north, away from the best instability…

NAM_221_2013031706_F39_SHRM_850_MB

Bottom line is that the primary risk tomorrow will come in the form of hail and strong, perhaps damaging straight line winds. While we can’t totally rule out an isolated tornado, the threat seems pretty low at this point with the best upper support so far north.

While storms are possible tomorrow morning, the best chance of a severe storm will come from about 12:00 noon until 7:00 p.m.

COLD RAIN LATE IN THE WEEK; SOME SNOW? A strong impulse will impact Alabama late in the week, and the GFS has been hinting at some snow over parts of North Alabama at times. The latest run (06Z) just shows a dusting over the northwest corner of the state.

gfs_snow_depth_east_43

While snow in late March is NOT that unusual for Alabama, the last few deterministic runs of the GFS and the ECMWF have hinted at just a cold rain for this part of the state, and we will keep that going in the forecast. But, the NAO/AO (North Atlantic Oscillation/Arctic Oscillation) are going strongly negative, and that suggests the door will be open for much colder air in the 5-10 day period from now.

COLD MARCH 24-28: The Euro is hinting at a cold pattern for this period, with some potential for flurries or light snow along the way. Below is the output for Monday evening March 25 at 7pm local time…

ecmwf_apcp_f216_us

Long time growers know this, but you never plant something that will be hurt by a frost or a freeze in March in Alabama. Best to wait until after April 10…

Again, Brian will be along with a new video shortly. Enjoy your Sunday…

Tags: ,

Category: Alabama's Weather

About the Author ()

James Spann is one of the most recognized and trusted television meteorologists in the industry. He holds the AMS CCM designation and television seals from the AMS and NWA. He is a past winner of the Broadcast Meteorologist of the Year from both professional organizations.

Comments are closed.