Warm Days; A Few Scattered Storms

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Temperatures are generally in the mid 80s at mid-afternoon; right at forecast levels. Birmingham is reporting 84 degrees at 2:00, while Tuscaloosa is warmer with 86.

TOMORROW: SPC maintains a slight risk of severe storms over the central part of Alabama for tomorrow afternoon, when a weak front will be passing through during the peak of the daytime heating process. But, the moisture is very limited, and it sure looks like the storms will be widely separated. The chance of any one spot getting wet tomorrow is only about one in six. Where the storms do form, however, they could produce some hail and gusty winds.

WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY: I really think Wednesday will be dry over the northern half of the state; most of the showers will be south of Montgomery, and they will be pretty scattered down there. Temperatures will be a bit cooler Wednesday with a high around 80.

The old front will drift north and dissipate Thursday, and for Thursday and Friday I think we had better mention some risk of scattered, mainly afternoon showers and storms in the muggy air that will move in from the south. Highs will be in the low 80s, and the chance of any one spot getting wet on these days is about one in three.

MEMORIAL DAY WEEKEND: A big blocking pattern in the upper atmosphere will be established, with a deep upper low over the Southwest U.S., another one over Eastern Canada, and a sharp upper ridge in-between. That ridge should put warm air aloft over Alabama, and for this reason the chance of showers over the holiday weekend will be very low over the northern two-thirds of the state through Monday. We will warm well into the 80s; possibly approaching 90 by Memorial Day.

AT THE BEACH: A few isolated showers and storms are possible along the Gulf coast on a daily basis through Thursday, but rain won’t be a big issue at all. Looks like the best coverage of showers on the coast will be on Friday, and even then the activity will be scattered and there should be some decent intervals of sunshine. For the Memorial Day weekend, we expect mostly sunny days and fair nights with few if any showers or storms. Highs along the immediate coast will be around 80, with mid to upper 80s for inland areas. The sea water temperature this afternoon at the Dauphin Island Sea Lab is 77 degrees (F).

VOODOO LAND: The 12Z GFS still shows a tropical system over the Northwest Caribbean as we get into June, but this run moves it up into the Atlantic, as opposed to the Gulf of Mexico like we have seen the last few days. All voodoo at this point, but fun to watch.

WEATHER BRAINS: Don’t forget you can listen to our weekly 30 minute netcast anytime on the web, or on iTunes. This is the show all about weather featuring many familiar voices, including our meteorologists here at ABC 33/40. You can even listen here on the blog; look for the player on the top left. We will record this week’s show tomorrow night… it should be posted by 10:00 or so tomorrow night.

I had a great time seeing the 3rd graders today at Vance Elementary School in Tuscaloosa County… be looking for them on the KIDCAM today at 5:00 on ABC 33/40 News! The next Weather Xtreme video will be posted by 7:00 a.m. tomorrow….

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