Strong/Severe Storms Possible Thursday
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THIS AFTERNOON: We have a mix of sun and clouds across the great state of Alabama this afternoon with temperatures generally in the 70s. Warmest spot is Montgomery… they have soared to 82 degrees at mid-afternoon. Nothing on the radar.
WARMEST SO FAR: We are projecting a high in the low 80s tomorrow, and mid 80s Wednesday… these will be our warmest days so far in 2013. Expect a mix of sun and clouds both days, and south winds will begin to increase, especially on Wednesday. The air becomes unstable Wednesday afternoon with those mid 80s, but a capping inversion should keep most of the state storm-free; just a very small risk of a shower or storm Wednesday afternoon and Wednesday night.
The weather looks good for the Birmingham Barons home opener Wednesday night at the new Regions Park in downtown Birmingham… warm and breezy with temperatures in the 70s. Only a small risk of a brief shower or storm.
SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL THURSDAY: After a review of the 12Z model set, not many changes in our forecast thinking.
*The main window for severe weather will come from 9:00 a.m. until 9:00 p.m. Thursday. The GFS remains somewhat of an outlier and is faster, our solution matches the NAM and the ECMWF.
*The primary risk will come from strong, potentially damaging straight line winds within the squall line (or QLCS) that will pass through Alabama Thursday. However, bulk shear values suggest we can’t rule out an isolated tornado or two, especially if the storms blow through during the afternoon hours Thursday when instability values will be a little higher.
*While the severe weather parameters certainly support strong to severe storms, the values are not overwhelming for April. Surface based CAPE values remain generally under 1,000 j/kg, and the EHI values remain under 1. Of course, at this stage of the game we can’t identify mesoscale features that could really have a big impact on the event.
*Rain amounts of 1 to 2 inches are likely Thursday, but we don’t expect major flash flooding problems since the ground can handle a good bit of rain.
Storms will move out of Alabama Thursday night.
FRIDAY AND THE WEEKEND: Look for returning sunshine on Friday with a high in the upper 60s; then we rise into the low 70s Saturday, and upper 70s Sunday. A few scattered clouds will show up Sunday, becoming thicker Sunday night.
The 12Z GFS shows a batch of showers moving into the state Monday with another impulse in the southern branch of the jet stream; see the afternoon Weather Xtreme video for the maps, graphics, and details.
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It was great seeing the 6th graders at Cornerstone School in Woodlawn, and the 2nd graders at Deer Valley Elementary in Hoover today… be watching for them on the Pepsi KIDCAM today at 5:00 and 6:00 on ABC 33/40 News! The next Weather Xtreme video will be posted here by 7:00 a.m. tomorrow….
Category: Alabama's Weather
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James Spann is one of the most recognized and trusted television meteorologists in the industry. He holds the AMS CCM designation and television seals from the AMS and NWA. He is a past winner of the Broadcast Meteorologist of the Year from both professional organizations.Subscribe
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