Watch Likely to be Issued Soon

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0565
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0454 PM CDT SAT APR 27 2013

AREAS AFFECTED…NERN MS…NRN AL…FAR NWRN GA

CONCERNING…SEVERE POTENTIAL…WATCH POSSIBLE

VALID 272154Z – 272300Z

PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE…60 PERCENT

SUMMARY…AN INCREASE IN TSTM INTENSITY HAS BEEN NOTED OVER THE PAST
COUPLE HRS ACROSS NERN MS/NWRN AL. THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD CONTINUE
ADVANCING EWD NEARLY PARALLEL TO A WARM FRONT DRAPED ACROSS THE
AREA…BUT INTO A PROGRESSIVELY LESS UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT.
CONVECTIVE TRENDS ARE BEING CLOSELY MONITORED FOR A POSSIBLE WW.

DISCUSSION…RADAR LOOP SHOWS A SUPERCELL MOVING ACROSS
FRANKLIN/COLBERT COUNTIES IN AL…WHICH IS LIKELY ANCHORED INVOF A
WARM FRONT ANALYZED FROM ROUGHLY 20 N TUP TO 25 NNE GAD TO 20 E
ATL…WITH RECENT REPORTS OF LARGE HAIL ASSOCIATED WITH THIS STORM.
ACTIVITY FARTHER S IN THE WARM SECTOR HAS SHOWN LESS
ORGANIZATION…BUT OCCASIONAL UPWARD PULSES IN INTENSITY HAVE BEEN
NOTED WITH ASSOCIATED POTENTIAL FOR HAIL.

DESPITE FAVORABLE DEEP-LAYER SHEAR IN THE PRESENCE OF A MIDLEVEL
JET…INSTABILITY REMAINS QUITE MARGINAL…AND DECREASES WITH EWD
EXTENT INTO PARTS OF NERN AL AND NWRN GA…WHERE SFC DEW POINTS ARE
ONLY IN THE LOW-TO-MID-50S F. MOISTURE ADVECTION SHOULD INCREASE
LATER THIS EVENING ACROSS ERN PORTIONS OF THE HIGHLIGHTED AREA AND
SHOULD MAINTAIN MARGINAL INSTABILITY BEYOND THE ONSET OF DIURNAL
COOLING. GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTY REGARDING THE POTENTIAL FOR STORM
INTENSITY TO BE MAINTAINED FARTHER E…A WW IS STILL
QUESTIONABLE…BUT CONVECTIVE TRENDS WILL CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED.

Category: Alabama's Weather, Severe Weather