Damp, Unsettled Pattern Developing
An all new edition of the ABC 33/40 Weather Xtreme video is available in the player on the right sidebar of the blog. You can subscribe to the Weather Xtreme video on iTunes by clicking here.
ON THE RADAR: As expected, the majority of the showers across Alabama today have been south and west of Birmingham. The rain at 3pm is south of a line from Millport to Moundville to Montgomery. The sky is mostly cloudy, and temperatures are in the 70s at mid-afternoon.
The overall idea still looks good… the upper low over Louisiana will weaken and move southeast, while a deep, cold core upper low will cut-off over Oklahoma during the next 36 hours creating a “rex block” pattern over the continental U.S. Model agreement is decent, so here is your day by day breakdown…
TOMORROW: The sky will be mostly cloudy, and a few passing showers are possible at any hour of the day over the entire state. The rain won’t be continuous, and you might see a peek of sunshine if you are lucky. The high will be only in the low 70s due to the clouds and showers.
FRIDAY: No real change; the main, organized rain mass associated with the Oklahoma upper low will remain west of the state, but a good moisture axis will stay in place. So, the day will be mostly cloudy with occasional showers. We might see 70 degrees if we are lucky… many North Alabama communities won’t get out of the 60s due to clouds and rain.
SATURDAY: The 12Z GFS pushes a large rain mass into Alabama late Friday night, after midnight. This rain should cover most of the state into at least Saturday morning. The new run moves a dry slot into West Alabama during the afternoon, so we are now projecting the rain to end from west to east during the midday and afternoon hours. The western counties could very well see some sun Saturday afternoon under the dry slot. The high will be only in the low to mid 60s, and some communities over North Alabama might even have a tough time getting out of the 50s. It sure won’t feel like May.
SUNDAY: The cold core upper low will be near Memphis. A decent chance we begin the day with sunshine, and the early morning hours will be cool. The GFS is printing a low of 46 degrees for Birmingham at daybreak; some places could drop down into the low 40s. Then, Sunday afternoon, showers will begin to form over the northern half of the state in response to the very cold air aloft. We should also point out those showers Sunday afternoon could produce some hail due to the upper low’s cold core structure. And, once again, it is very doubtful we get out of the 60s.
MONDAY: The new GFS (12Z run) puts the cold core right on top of North Alabama… if this is the case then showers will remain possible, and the heavier showers could produce some hail, even with no thunder and lightning. And, if the ULL is on top of us, we probably won’t make it out of the 50s. Some record low maximum temperatures for May 6 could be in danger.
Showers will thin out greatly Tuesday, and by Wednesday most of Alabama will be dry.
LET’S GO RACING: A few passing showers are likely at the Talladega Superspeedway tomorrow and Friday, but no total wash-out. Expect a high both days between 66 and 69 degrees. Saturday still looks like the wettest day with rain likely most of the day. The new GFS run gives some hope the rain will end by mid-afternoon Saturday, with perhaps just enough time to get the Aaron’s 312 in after a delay. Saturday will be a cool day with a high only in the mid 60s.
Sunday should feature morning sunshine, but scattered afternoon showers. As mentioned above, some of the showers Sunday afternoon might even have a little small hail due to the cold air aloft over the state. The chance of a shower at the track Sunday afternoon is about one in three, and the high Sunday will be in the mid to upper 60s.
We should mention it will be pretty chilly early Sunday around the Superspeedway, with early morning lows in the 40-44 degree range.
WEATHER BRAINS: Don’t forget you can listen to our weekly 90 minute netcast anytime on the web, or on iTunes. This is the show all about weather featuring many familiar voices, including our meteorologists here at ABC 33/40.
CONNECT: You can find me on all of the major social networks…
Facebook
Twitter
Google Plus
Instagram
Look for the next Weather Xtreme video here by 7:00 a.m. tomorrow…
Category: Alabama's Weather
About the Author (Author Profile)
James Spann is one of the most recognized and trusted television meteorologists in the industry. He holds the AMS CCM designation and television seals from the AMS and NWA. He is a past winner of the Broadcast Meteorologist of the Year from both professional organizations.Subscribe
If you enjoyed this article, subscribe to receive more just like it.
