Moisture Levels Rising Across Alabama

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RADAR CHECK: At daybreak showers are over parts of South and West Alabama… in a broad zone from near York and Livingston down through Linden, Camden, and Evergreen. The showers are moving northwest due to the circulation around an upper low over Louisiana.

COMPLEX FORECAST: With the current upper low over Louisiana, and the development of a deep, cold core upper low over Oklahoma later in the week and an associated rex block, it will make for a challenging forecast over the next 5-6 days. You can watch the Weather Xtreme video and see all of the maps and graphics… and let’s break it down one day at a time…

TODAY/TONIGHT: Clearly, the most widespread rain will be in areas south and west of Birmingham due to the upper feature over Louisiana. But, a few scattered showers could form this afternoon over North Alabama as well. We should see a little sun at times today with a high generally in the upper 70s. Where the sun breaks out for a while, a high of 80 degrees is possible.

TOMORROW: The upper low over Louisiana will move southeast and begin to fizzle out, while the cold upper trough digs down across the middle of the nation. While we will have a moist airmass in place, there is no real dynamic support for rain, and the GFS and NAM models look relatively dry (on the 00Z runs), suggesting much of the day will be rain-free. But, with a good supply of moisture we will mention a chance of scattered showers, mostly during the afternoon and evening hours along with a high in the mid 70s.

FRIDAY: A deep upper low will be along I-40 near Oklahoma City, and a very moist airmass will be in place over Alabama. We will mention scattered to numerous showers over our state Friday, but it won’t rain all day, and the sun might peek out at times. The high will drop into the low 70s.

SATURDAY: The big ULL will be moving slowly down I-40, and should be around Little Rock at midday Saturday. This puts in a very favorable position for a rainy day; we will mention rain for much of the day Saturday with a high only in the mid 60s… wqy below average for early May in Alabama. Some communities over Northwest Alabama will have a hard time getting out of the 50s.

SUNDAY: The upper low will move toward Nashville/Knoxville, and the GFS continues to show a dry slot over Alabama. This could mean a mostly sunny start to the day, and a very cool morning lows. Most communities will be in the 40s at daybreak Sunday. By afternoon a few scattered showers should begin to form due to the very cold air aloft with the upper low just north of here. Nothing widespread, but showers that do form Sunday afternoon could produce some hail, especially north of Birmingham. The high should be close to 70 degrees.

We should note the Euro solution looks wetter for Sunday, but we will discount that for now and just mention “scattered, mostly afternoon showers”.

MONDAY: The upper low is around Bristol, TN, and we will hang on to the risk of showers over the northern quarter of the state, mostly north of U.S. 278. The rest of Alabama will be dry with a high around 70.

Tuesday and Wednesday look dry with a slow warming trend.

RACE WEEKEND AT TALLADEGA: Quite the tricky forecast with showers possible daily through Sunday. Sure looks like most of the day tomorrow will be dry with only isolated showers, but the risk of one or two passing showers Friday is a little higher.

The most problematic day will come Saturday, with several hours of rain likely at the Superspeedway. A delay is likely for the Aaron’s 312, and getting the race in could be a challenge. The good news is that, for now, it looks like most of the day Sunday will be dry with only a few isolated showers Sunday afternoon.

Temperatures won’t get out of the 60s at Talladega Saturday with the rain, but the high Sunday should be close to 70. At least heat won’t be a problem.

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I will be speaking to a group of health care volunteers at Trinity Medical Center today… look for the next Weather Xtreme video here by 4:00 this afternoon. Enjoy the day…

Tags: showers

Category: Alabama's Weather