Scattered Storms Possible Again

No Weather Xtreme Video this morning due to the fact that I am in Pittsburg, NH, and the Internet connectivity is just not quite there for posting a sizable video file. And for some reason, my post was not made earlier in the day, so I reposted it when I realized it was not there.

The scattered shower regime should be with us one more day today with a surface high pressure system centered off to our east. Aloft, a fairly strong upper trough will rotate out of Iowa and into the eastern Great Lakes by Sunday afternoon. A second short wave will follow quickly behind that one and cross the Mississippi River Sunday afternoon. While we will see scattered showers develop again today, showers should be more numerous and produce rain over a greater area on Sunday. With a mixture of clouds and sun, I expect to see highs mainly in the middle 80s today and Sunday.

SPC has outlooked a large slight risk area in a band from Lake Erie southwestward across the Ohio River Valley and the Central Mississippi River Valley and into Central Texas including places like Memphis, Little Rock, Indianapolis, Shreveport, and Dallas-Fort Worth. The slight risk area does clip the northwest corner of Alabama.

The bulk of the upper dynamics will swing well north of Alabama on Sunday and Monday even as the second short wave comes across the Mississippi River. This should bring an end to showers on Monday as slightly drier air comes into the state of Alabama behind the weak cold front. Dew points should drop about 10 degrees or so, so even though air temperatures will not really change much, it will feel a bit drier through much of the work week.

We should remain rain free through the upcoming week as an upper ridge becomes the main player in the overall weather pattern. By the end of the week, we will probably see a return to scattered afternoon showers as moisture levels gradually climb once again with highs through the latter part of the week returning to the upper 80s, perhaps pushing the 90-degree mark.

There is one interesting fly in the ointment. The remnants of Hurricane Barbara from the Pacific are sort of seen in the Southwest Gulf of Mexico where there is an area of disturbed weather which can be tracked back to what was Barbara. The storm certainly did not cross Mexico in a recognizable form. The GFS suggest that this disturbed area will gradually move northeastward with development possible off the northern Yucatan area on Monday. The GFS develops a fairly strong surface low, but that low moves very little for several days. By late Thursday and early Friday, the surface low moves across the southern portion of Florida. The GFS seems to be a little unsure of what to do with the system as it strengthens it and then weakens it and then jumps it across Florida, so my confidence in this solution is not very high. To add to the lack of confidence, the ECMWF does something similar to the GFS but with a system that is not as strong and had a track further north across the northern portion of the Florida peninsula. I think this one really begs the phrase, “Stay tuned.” One item to note is that sea surface temperatures in the Southeast Gulf of Mexico 26 to 28 degrees Celsius, about 80 degrees Fahrenheit, so there is some tropical warmth favoring some development. Interesting to note, too, that the QPF forecasts generate around 7 inches of rain across the southern third of Florida.

Long range GFS projections show a very deep trough over the eastern half of the country around June 10th. This would signal a round of wet weather around the 9th and 10th. It would also signal some below average temperatures in the 11th to 14th time frame. We don’t typically see troughs this deep in the summer months, so I’m not terribly confident in this solution. However, I am hopeful because it would mean some fairly cool June days which would certainly be fine by me.

Sorry for the lack of video today and tomorrow. Cell service in northern New Hampshire is close to non-existant and most of the Internet connectivity appears to come with satellite services. I will plan to post a weather discussion on Sunday morning.

On the bright side, my daughter and I arrived late yesterday afternoon in quest of moose. We succeeded when we saw three moose briefly during the dusk time. Unfortunately, our goal of getting some digital images of the moose was thwarted by the lack of light. But our quest for those images will continue today and into early next week.

-Brian-

Category: Alabama's Weather