Drier Air Arrives Tonight

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RADAR CHECK: An MCS (mesoscale convective system) has been moving slowly southward overnight and during the pre-dawn hours with heavy rain and lots of lightning. Flash flood warnings are up for parts of Greene, Hale, Perry, and Marengo Counties as I write this around dawn. The heaviest rain at 6:00 a.m. was in the broad area from Columbus, MS to Montgomery… nothing severe, but some big time downpours and lots of lightning. Rain is ending in the Birmingham metro, and north of Birmingham it is generally dry for now.

LATER TODAY: A surface front is still north of Alabama, moving southward, and the big question involves additional shower and thunderstorm development later today on that boundary. The air clearly has been worked over by the pre-dawn MCS, and that will hinder thunderstorm formation greatly. But, the high res NAM all of a sudden does indeed show additional storms forming this afternoon over North Alabama, and out of respect for that model we will insert that in the forecast. The rain won’t be as widespread as what we saw yesterday afternoon, but some spots could see one more passing shower or storm in the 2:00-8:00 p.m. time frame.

OAK MOUNTAIN CONCERT: I have about 1.2 million people asking about weather for the Luke Bryan concert tonight at the Oak Mountain Amphitheater… (let’s hope they all don’t show up; I don’t think there are that many seats) I would say there is about a one in four risk of a shower or storm about the time the concert begins, but it is rains it probably won’t last long, and the showers will move south rather quickly. But, I would be prepared for a passing shower or storm just in case.

TOMORROW/SATURDAY: The air will be pretty dry on these days over the northern half of the state, so we expect a pretty decent amount of sunshine with only isolated showers… most communities should be rain-free. The high will be in the 87 to 80 degree range, and humidity values will be a touch lower.

SUNDAY AND NEXT WEEK: We will broad brush the forecast with the usual summer conditions… partly sunny days with the risk of scattered, mostly afternoon and evening showers and thunderstorms. Highs 87-91. Just no skill in trying to identify changes in the placement, coverage, or intensity of the scattered storms far in advance. And, for now, it looks like we won’t have to deal with any tropical mischief.

TROPICAL UPDATE: Chantal, the former tropical storm in the Caribbean, is now just an open wave, and it is unlikely this will regenerate in the short term. It might bring enhanced shower coverage to South Florida this weekend. The rest of the Atlantic basin for now is quiet.

GULF COAST WEATHER: Showers and storms are likely today, especially for Pensacola and Gulf Shores, with a limited about of sunshine. But, tomorrow through the weekend and next week the weather looks very routine for summer. About 6 to 8 hours of sunshine each day with the usual risk of scattered showers and thunderstorms. The TUTT low this weekend should remain well to the south.

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Tags: drier

Category: Alabama's Weather