Showers/Storms Likely Later Today

An all new edition of the ABC 33/40 Weather Xtreme video is available in the player on the right sidebar of the blog. You can subscribe to the Weather Xtreme video on iTunes by clicking here.

UNSETTLED SUMMER WEATHER: A very moist environment remains in place across Alabama this morning with high PWAT values (precipitable water). This, combined with an approaching wave aloft, should trigger numerous showers and storms later today and tonight, much like yesterday. While it won’t rain everywhere, any one community has about a 70 percent risk of getting wet, and the stronger storms will drop lots of rain in a short amount of time. Radar suggested parts of Mountain Brook/Cahaba Heights/Homewood had 2-4 inches of rain yesterday afternoon; there was considerable flooding around the Birmingham metro, especially near creeks and streams.

I doubt if we get past the mid 80s today due to clouds and showers; we have seen a high of 90 or higher on only three days this month (July 10, 17, and 19)… and our average high is only 86 degrees for the month. If you use the average high as the metric, our “coolest” July on record in Alabama is 1916, when the average high was 85.2 degrees. No doubt we are going to give that record a run for the money… no doubt this will be one of the coolest Julys on record in our state.

TOMORROW/WEDNESDAY: We will still deal with scattered showers and storms on these days, but they should be fewer in number with a mix of sun and clouds. One thing to consider is that we will be in a northwest flow aloft, and sometimes big thunderstorm masses can form over the nation’s cornbelt, and wind up in Alabama at any hour of the day or night. These are almost impossible to forecast; you just have to watch radar and satellite trends. The high both days should be in the 87-90 degree range.

THURSDAY/FRIDAY: The GFS is suggesting these two days should be relatively dry. Understand there is still some risk of a shower or two, but they should be few and far between. Look for increased amounts of sunshine with a high around 90 degrees both days.

OUR WEEKEND: Moisture levels rise, and we will mention scattered to possibly numerous showers and storms Saturday and Sunday with some sun at times. Best chance of rain, as usual, will come during the afternoon and evening hours, and the high should be somewhere between 87 and 90 degrees.

TROPICS: Tropical storm formation is not expected in the short term, but I still expect to see an uptick in tropical activity toward the end of the month in about 7 to 10 days with the next MJO pulse (Madden Jullian Oscillation).

GULF COAST WEATHER: While you will have to dodge the scattered summer storms just about every day this week, we figure most locations will see at least 5 to 7 hours of sunshine from Panama City over to Gulf Shores. Highs on the immediate coast will be in the 86-89 degree range, with low 90s inland. The sea water temperature this morning at the Dauphin Island Sea Lab is 82 degrees.

WEATHER BRAINS: Don’t forget you can listen to our weekly 90 minute netcast anytime on the web, or on iTunes. This is the show all about weather featuring many familiar voices, including our meteorologists here at ABC 33/40. We will produce this week’s show tonight at 8:30p CT…. you can watch it live on our weather channel “James Spann 24/7” on cable systems around the state, or on the web here.

CONNECT: You can find me on all of the major social networks…

Facebook
Twitter
Google Plus
Instagram

Look for the next Weather Xtreme video here by 4:00 or so this afternoon. Enjoy the day!

Tags: wet

Category: Alabama's Weather