More Showers/Storms Later Today

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RADAR CHECK: It is a fairly quiet morning across Alabama; we note a few showers near Montgomery, and a thunderstorm west of Tuscaloosa over Pickens County at daybreak as I write this. We do note some patches of dense fog around the state.

THE DAY AHEAD: The air remains very moist; precipitable water values are in the 1.5-1.8 range, so storms that develop later today will drop more heavy rain. The high resolution NAM hints at another MCS (mesoscale convective system) blowing up around here this afternoon or early tonight…. then moving down into South Alabama after midnight. Bottom line is that we will maintain a pretty good chance of occasional showers and storms today with a little sun in the mix at times. Like recent days, we won’t get out of the 80s.

TOMORROW/FRIDAY: While we might see a shower or two around, we believe most of Alabama will be dry on these two days with increased sunshine and warmer temperatures. Highs will be up in the 87 to 90 degree range with a good supply of sunshine and only isolated afternoon showers.

THE ALABAMA WEEKEND: An approaching front will bring a chance of showers and storms back to the state on Saturday. Won’t be a wash-out, but a few passing showers and storms are likely with a high in the 80s. Then, drier air works down into North Alabama Sunday; looks like most places along and north of I-20 will be dry, with the main risk of showers and storms confined to the southern half of the state.

NEXT WEEK: For North Alabama, Monday looks generally dry with slightly lower humidity levels. Then, moist air slowly returns and we will need to bring back the risk of scattered showers and thunderstorms on Tuesday and Wednesday.

GULF COAST WEATHER: No doubt the occasional shower and storm will remain in the forecast, but the overall trend should be for increasing amounts of sunshine as we approach the weekend… about 5 to 7 hours each day on an average basis. Highs will be in the upper 80s on the immediate coast, with low 90s inland. The sea water temperature this morning at the Dauphin Island Sea Lab is 83 degrees.

TROPICAL DEPRESSION FOUR: This formed in the far East Atlantic overnight, and it will move steadily to the west/northwest over the next five days. While it should become Tropical Storm Dorian soon, it is not expected to become a hurricane through the weekend. The system will be initially fighting dry air, and then over the weekend shearing conditions will increase over the system. Most tropical systems in this region in late July tend to recurve over the Atlantic, but it is too early to determine if this one will recurve, or try and make a run at the East Coast of the U.S. A long way out there, and something to watch in coming days.

2013 RAIN UPDATE: Here are some updated rain totals for year…

Anniston 50.24″ (surplus of 19.77″)
Birmingham 47.00″ (surplus of 15.03″)
Montgomery 36.93″ (surplus of 5.38″)
Tuscaloosa 34.32″ (surplus of 2.80″)

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Tags: wet

Category: Alabama's Weather