Stormy Day on Tap

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Several thunderstorm clusters developed along and south of the cluster that moved through Tennessee yesterday afternoon. These clusters produced some good rains for the area along and northeast of a line running from about Hamilton to Talladega, generally along and just north of the warm front. Rainfall was locally heavy in some spots with radar estimates of 2 to 4 inches in places. And the unsettled weather will continue for today and tonight before we go quiet again – at least until the next weak front approaches this weekend.

Dew points came up quite a bit overnight as the warm front pushed northeast. I’m always amazed at how quickly the atmosphere can recover. Low pressure waves will be moving along the front today and tonight allowing for the additional development of showers and thunderstorms. CAPE values surge upward into the 1000 to 2000 J/kg range this afternoon and evening, so we might see an isolated severe storm with damaging wind the main threat. Of course, with the high moisture content, heavy downpours could lead to flash flooding in places getting the greatest rainfall. With showers and storms numerous today and tonight, I would expect many locations to get some rain but it will vary widely. Clouds and numerous showers will keep afternoon highs in the middle 80s.

The weather settles down on Thursday afternoon and evening as the frontal boundary pushes southward into South Alabama. But some cautions here. The weakness between the two ridges, one over the Atlantic and one over the western US – the troughiness I keep referring to – means we remain in a northwesterly flow pattern so we’ll have to watch for weak disturbances in the flow that could produce additional thunderstorm clusters. In fact, the GFS shows such features on Friday and Saturday. Temperatures should recover to around 90 for highs.

By Sunday, another frontal boundary will be sagging into the Tennessee River Valley which will once again bring rain chances up. So Saturday will be a return to afternoon showers with those showers becoming more widespread on Sunday. That frontal boundary lingers across Alabama into the first of next week so look for daily chances of showers and thunderstorms, probably a little more numerous than a regular summer day.

Long range model output suggests that the eastern US trough feature will remain with us well into August keeping any extreme heat well away from the eastern half of the country.

The tropics are quiet with the remnants of Dorian hard to locate.

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Just a reminder that James Spann is on vacation so we remain on a one-a-day schedule through this next weekend. Keep the umbrella handy and Godspeed.

-Brian-

Category: Alabama's Weather