Mostly Dry Today, But Watching to the Northwest
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The air remains dry aloft with slightly lower dew points showing up on surface observations. The sounding at the Shelby County Airport last night showed a nice subsidence inversion just above 800 millibars which should help to keep the development of showers in check today. However, we simply can’t rule out the potential for isolated shower development in the afternoon heat with highs getting to the 89 to 92 range. The bigger challenge, however, is trying to figure out what is going to happen in the northwesterly flow pattern as we once again see a large thunderstorm cluster over Southwest Missouri.
The GFS hints at the prospect of it coming into northern Mississippi, but the high resolution NAM shows it actually bringing thunderstorms into Central Alabama by this evening as thunderstorms develop on a possible outflow boundary. This is certainly a tough forecast challenge and for now the forecast sticks primarily with dry conditions and an isolated thunderstorm or two.
Sunday into Monday is looking challenging once again with a repeat of the process. The high resolution NAM shows a huge cluster of storms in the vicinity of Memphis by sunrise on Monday morning. The GFS is similar but not nearly as aggressive with it. Here’s the challenge, if the NAM is correct, Monday we might not see the temperatures climb much above 82 or 83 degrees as that cluster passes through Central Alabama during the morning and early afternoon. So for now, the forecast remains more optimistic for showers with a stormy day a real potential.
As we’ve seen the last couple of runs, the upper trough and the northwesterly flow weaken considerably by Wednesday which brings a zonal flow to the area across the Ohio and Tennessee River Valleys. This would keep a threat of thunderstorm clusters across that area and return us to more daily shower chances.
The upper air pattern begins to go back toward the eastern US trough by the end of the week and into the start of the weekend. The trough is not as strong as we have seen, but the weakness aloft suggests another weak frontal boundary will sag into the area from the north and become stationary. This would bring good rain chances focused primarily by daytime heating. The presence of clouds and fairly numerous showers and thunderstorms would also keep highs in the upper 80s.
SPC maintains a risk of severe weather in the Central Plains today, Day 1, with a continued potential for severe storms there on Day 2. And Dorian has risen to the status of a tropical depression. NHC’s projections keep it a depression and move it slowly but steadily out into the Atlantic for the next couple of days before it becomes absorbed into a frontal zone.
Not really much change to see in the projections out into voodoo country. The trough over the eastern US is maintained, although this run seems to be a little weaker at the end of the period. Still the big trend is the absence of any extreme heat for the eastern part of the country.
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I expect to have the next edition of the Weather Xtreme Video posted Sunday by 8 am or so. Be sure to catch the latest weather forecast on ABC 3340 at 6 and 10 pm this evening as I am filling in for Ashley Brand. Enjoy the day and Godspeed.
-Brian-
Category: Alabama's Weather