Mostly Dry Today Across Alabama

An all new edition of the ABC 33/40 Weather Xtreme video is available in the player on the right sidebar of the blog. You can subscribe to the Weather Xtreme video on iTunes by clicking here.

Thanks to Bill Murray, Brian Peters, J.B. Elliott, and Ryan Stinnett for covering for me last week… had a great week spending some quality time with family. Much needed and appreciated.

NOT MUCH RAIN TODAY: We can really never say the chance of rain is zero around here in early August, but we believe showers will be very widely spaced across the northern half of Alabama today. The high should be in the 88 to 91 degree range for most places. Model output statistics (MOS) from computer models are still running way too hot for North and Central Alabama; yesterday’s high in Birmingham was only 88 degrees… the models had us up in the mid 90s. The hotter values (low to mid 90s) will be confined to the southern half of the state.

REST OF THE WEEK: Heights are lower, the air is a bit more unstable, and moisture levels are high. Which means every day we will forecast “scattered showers and thunderstorms”. While I was on vacation last week, I had to giggle watching weather people struggle to forecast the placement, timing, and intensity of the daily round of showers and storms we have here. The simple truth is that there is very little skill in this, making it frustrating for us all. We can’t tell you exactly when and where it will rain due to the random, scattered nature of summer storms.

The bottom line… we will have a chance of showers and thunderstorms each day tomorrow through Friday; the chance of any one spot getting wet will be in the 30 to 60 percent range. And, while most of the showers and storms will come during the afternoon and evening hours, we can’t rule out an occasional late night or morning thunderstorm with a weak northwest flow aloft pattern still in place. Away from the showers, there will be a fairly decent amount of sun each day.

I think highs will be between 87 and 90 degrees for this part of Alabama as MOS guidance remains way too hot. We note we have not reached 90 degrees in Birmingham so far during the month of August. Very, very unusual.

OUR WEEKEND: No change. A mix of sun and clouds Saturday and Sunday with the chance of scattered showers and thunderstorms continuing. Highs mostly in the upper 80s to near 90. This pattern lingers into next week.

AT THE BEACH: Pretty decent weather this week from Panama City west to Gulf Shores. Roughly 6 to 8 hours of sunshine each day, with the usual risk of a passing storm from time to time. Highs in the low 90s on the immediate coast, and the sea water temperature this morning at the Dauphin Island Sea Lab is a warm 87 degrees.

TROPICS: Very quiet now across the Atlantic basin, and tropical storm formation is not expected through mid-week. But, we now in the core of the hurricane season, so don’t be surprised if things begin to pop soon as pressures begin to lower. Dry air over the Atlantic basin now is one of the biggest reasons things are calm.

WEATHER BRAINS: Don’t forget you can listen to our weekly 90 minute netcast anytime on the web, or on iTunes. This is the show all about weather featuring many familiar voices, including our meteorologists here at ABC 33/40. We will produce this week’s show tonight at 8:30p CT… watch it live on our cable weather channel “James Spann 24/7, or on the web here.

CONNECT: You can find me on all of the major social networks…

Facebook
Twitter
Google Plus
Instagram

Look for the next Weather Xtreme video here by 4:00 this afternoon… enjoy the day!

Tags: dry

Category: Alabama's Weather