A Fly in the Ointment?

We have been wistfully looking to next weekend for the possibility of some slightly drier and slightly cooler air here in Central Alabama. Not that we were expecting it to feel like October, but even dewpoints in the middle 60s would be an improvement.

That hope has been based on the development of an upper level trough over the eastern United States. The European model is on board with that idea, as is the American GFS model.

But the GFS threw a fly in the ointment on this morning’s run.

We have been advertising the potential for tropical cyclone development over the western Caribbean. That increasingly looks likely, with low pressure developing early in the week ahead and moving northwest toward the southern Gulf.

The GFS has linked the two ideas, allowing the trough over the Gulf States to attract that tropical system northwad instead of allowing it to spin westward into Mexico.

The model shows a tropical depression forming near the northern coast of the Yucatan early Wednesday, drifting northwestward into the southwestern Gulf where water temperatures are over 86F. Remember, tropical systems like anything over 79F, so this will be like the line at Nikki’s West for a developing storm.

It’s just one model run, but the GFS brings it to the northern Gulf Coast around Pensacola by late Saturday. We also note that the European model takes the system much further to the south, missing the opportunity to come north via the trough, and heading into southern Mexico.

BUT IF: And it is a big IF, a tropical system does develop and it does come to the northern Gulf Coast as the GFS advertises, heavy rain would spread into Central Alabama over the weekend. Fortunately, there aren’t any signs that IF the system were to get up into Alabama, that its progress would be blocked, so no extended period of rainfall.

This of course could have a significant impact on our weather as well as the weather along the beautiful beaches of Alabama and Northwest Florida next weekend. Stay tuned.

Category: Alabama's Weather, Tropical