Tropical Depression Six Forms

The disturbed area that moved across the Yucatan Peninsula yesterday and last night has become slightly better organized, and the National Hurricane Center has dubbed it TD 6. Their statement is below.

The best estimate on the track keeps it on a west-northwest course into Mexico in about 12 hours. A Hurricane Hunter aircraft is enroute to the storm, so there will be better information later today.

It’s going to be a close call as to whether or not it will become a named tropical storm. There is some indication that it could slow over the warm water of the Southwest Gulf, so it might gain just enough strength to be named. It would be Fernand.

-Brian-

BULLETIN
TROPICAL DEPRESSION SIX ADVISORY NUMBER   1
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL062013
400 PM CDT SUN AUG 25 2013

...TROPICAL DEPRESSION FORMS IN THE SOUTHWESTERN BAY OF CAMPECHE...
...TROPICAL STORM WARNING ISSUED FOR PORTIONS OF GULF COAST OF
MEXICO...


SUMMARY OF 400 PM CDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...19.5N 95.5W
ABOUT 50 MI...80 KM ENE OF VERACRUZ MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 270 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1006 MB...29.71 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR THE
GULF COAST OF MEXICO FROM VERACRUZ TO TAMPICO.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 400 PM CDT...2100 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION SIX WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 19.5 NORTH...LONGITUDE 95.5 WEST. THE
DEPRESSION IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 12 MPH...19 KM/H. A
WESTWARD TO WEST-NORTHWESTWARD MOTION WITH SOME DECREASE IN FORWARD
SPEED IS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT DAY OR TWO. ON THE FORECAST
TRACK...THE CENTER SHOULD CROSS THE COAST OF MEXICO IN THE WARNING
AREA BY EARLY MONDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 35 MPH...55 KM/H...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS.  THE DEPRESSION IS FORECAST TO BECOME A TROPICAL STORM BEFORE
LANDFALL...AND WEAKENING WILL BEGIN AFTER THE CENTER MOVES INLAND.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1006 MB...29.71 INCHES.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
RAINFALL...THE DEPRESSION IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE 4 TO 8 INCHES OF
RAIN OVER VERACRUZ...HIDALGO...NORTHERN PUEBLA...SOUTHERN
TAMAULIPAS ...AND EASTERN SAN LUIS POTOSI MEXICO...WITH ISOLATED
MAXIMUM AMOUNTS NEAR 12 INCHES POSSIBLE.  THESE RAINS COULD CAUSE
LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES.

WIND...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO SPREAD OVER THE
COAST WITHIN THE WARNING AREA IN A FEW HOURS.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY...700 PM CDT.
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...1000 PM CDT.

$$
FORECASTER PASCH

Category: Tropical