Soaking Rain Possible Saturday

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ONLY ISOLATED SHOWERS TODAY: While most of our attention will be on the weekend, the weather looks pretty quiet around here through Friday. A wedge type front (one that moves in from the east) brought cooler temperatures to East Alabama yesterday; so highs today will range from the low 80s over East Alabama to the upper 80s over the western third of the state. A shower or two could pop up on radar, but they will be few and far between, and most places will stay dry.

No real change tomorrow and Friday; partly to mostly sunny both days with a high in the 80s. The chance of rain is so small we won’t mention it in the formal forecast.

SATURDAY SOAKER: Models continue to trend very wet for the weekend. The 00Z GFS shows a cold front moving slowly into the state with good upper support, and a tropical connection with moisture from former Tropical Storm Ingrid involved. Add a surface low in the mix, and it now looks like rain amounts of 1 to 3 inches are likely this weekend.

For Saturday, rain and thunderstorms are likely, and unfortunately it now looks like the rain will last into Saturday night. There should be some breaks in the wet weather, but the rain could come at any hour of the day or night, and the rain could be heavy at times. We won’t get out of the 70s because of the clouds and rain.

The GFS is also now suggesting the rain will linger into at least part of the day Sunday as an upper low forms over the region, and a surface low moves only slowly to the east.

Dry weather is the idea for early next week, unless potential Tropical Storm Jerry gets involved (see the tropical discussion below).

FOOTBALL WEATHER: I think the high school games Thursday and Friday night will be fine with a fair sky and temperatures in the 70s. But, Saturday is a different story….

For the Alabama/Colorado State game Saturday evening in Tuscaloosa (6:00p CT kickoff), rain is likely with temperatures in the 70s. The rain might even be heavy at times, but confidence in the timing of the heavier rain is low at this point. Just keep an eye on the forecast as game day gets closer. Rain will also be a problem for tailgaters on the UA campus during the day Saturday.

Auburn is on the road; they take on LSU at 6:45p CT Saturday in Baton Rouge. Rain is likely through the day Saturday, and rain could very well linger into at least the first half of the game. The latest model data suggests a much smaller risk of rain during the second half. Like Tuscaloosa, temperatures should be mostly in the 70s.

TROPICAL WEATHER: A disturbance near the Yucatan peninsula of Mexico and Belize will move into the far Southwest Gulf of Mexico (the Bay of Campeche) within 12 hours, and that has high potential to become Tropical Storm Jerry. While this could very well move into Mexico, like Ingrid, now models are showing much more uncertainty with weak steering currents. Sure looks like it will meander around the Southwest Gulf for a number of days, and some models want to pull it north, like the ECMWF ensemble package. Just too much uncertainty to know for sure; take a few minutes to watch the morning Weather Xtreme video for maps, graphics, and more details.

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I have a weather program this morning at Clanton Middle School…. look for the next Weather Xtreme video here by 4:00 this afternoon… enjoy the day!

Tags: dry

Category: Alabama's Weather